I am watching MSNBC this morning, and am a bit surprised at the reporting. Hamas had executed this extraordinary attack on Israel, with over 40 people killed and almost 1000 injured in Israel, and the concentration on MSNBC is more focused on Israeli treatment of Palestinians recently and historically than on this attack itself, and more focused on the assumed Israeli response than on the chaotic scene in Israel today. The primary voices on MSNBC are two journalists who normally seem quite unbiased, Ali Velshi and Ayman Mohyeldin. Interesting, both are Moslem, Mohyeldin born in Egypt and Velshi, born in Kenya to Indian Ismaili Moslem parents. I am not sure what to make of this, so as of now I am just noting it. My guess is, though, that there will be repercussions of some sort. Keep tuned.
The big picture:
What I think is important to remember is that there has been a state of war in this area since the destruction of the Ottoman Empire in World War I and the creation of the British Mandate over Palestine by the League of Nations. Sometimes that war becomes very hot (1948, 1967, 1973, 2006 and now 2023), sometimes it is cold, and sometimes there are flares. Israel has been a country for the past 75 years (that’s all), and there still has not been any fully recognized borders. Although the United Nations had created a plan to partition the country between Moslem Arabs and Jews, the partition was only accepted by the Jews in 1948. The attack by Arab armies in 1948 was ended by an armistice, not by a treaty, and the armistice put Israel in control over somewhat more land than Israel would have received under the United Nations partition. The six day 1967 war ended with Israel occupying the West Bank of the Jordan River, which had been under Jordanian protection, and the Gaza Strip and Sinai, which had been governed by Egypt, the Golan Heights which had been part of Syria, and East Jerusalem, including the Old City and the Temple Mount. Clearly, as we now know, both Jordan and Egypt were happy to relinquish their responsibilities for the West Bank and Gaza.
In Israel, following 1967, there were differing opinions as to how Israel should deal with the territories it was occupying. At first, the issues dealt with security, how to protect Israel itself, but eventually other forces took control. These forces included those who felt that Jerusalem should be united under Israeli control, allowing non-Jews religious freedom (under Jordanian control, Jews were excluded from East Jerusalem and many Jewish historic sites were destroyed). They also included those who thought the best way to secure Israel proper was to bring Jewish settlers into portions of the West Bank surrounding Jerusalem and elsewhere, and the number of settlers in 2023 is now approximately 600,000 Jews. And they included those Israelis known as Religious Zionists, who look to the Bible to determine what should be the considered the Jewish homeland, as the greatest part of biblical history deal with the history of the Jews in what is now the West Bank. They believe Israeli control of this area should be permanent.
Because Gaza does not have those biblical connotations, and in the hope of ending the conflict between Gaza and Israel, Israel, during the time that Ariel Sharon was Prime Minister, dropped its military occupation of Gaza and moved all Jewish settlers in Gaza out of Gaza. But it kept up its non-occupational control of Gaza, a territory which is unable to provide for itself on its own, and which could always become a danger to Israel.
The result of the departure of Israel’s military forces from Gaza changed some things, but not others. It certainly didn’t tamp down Gaza’s opposition to Israel and to Israel’s control of Gaza’s largest borders. And it eventually led to the failure of the Palestinian Authority to retain control over the government of Gaza and to its replacement by Hamas, an organization that the U.S. government has defined a terrorist organization. Hamas has a charter which denies the existence or legitimacy of the State of Israel, and claims Arab control over all of greater Palestine, including the territory known as Israel.
For this reason, there cannot be negotiations between Gaza and Israel – as Israel says “you can’t have a negotiation if there is no one with whom to negotiate”.
So, perhaps today was inevitable. And the time itself should not be a surprise. Look what is going on: (1) Israel now has its most right wing government in history, (2) the current Israeli government has been harder on Palestinian Arabs generally, and has made it clear that its goal is to annex most or all of the West Bank as a Jewish controlled area, (3) the Israeli population is hopelessly divided and diverted to other issues, as shown by the daily protests in the streets of Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and elsewhere, (4) the protests have clearly affected the Israeli military – reserves who say they won’t fight, governmental statements about members of the military who do not support the current coalition, etc., and (5) the Abraham Accords have not benefited the Palestinians and the Palestinians have been worried that Arab governments who have now recognized Israel and negotiated with it without requiring any changes in Israeli-Palestinian relations. It looks like this will continue as negotiations between Israel and Saudi Arabia continue and look fruitful.
And this doesn’t even go the question of how Israeli military intelligence didn’t know that this operation was in preparation? How is that possible? This was not planned two nights ago over coffee and baklava. Was the intelligence failure also a result of internal Israeli dissension?
So what will happen now? More war and casualties mostly on the Arab side (to me, the Gazans who entered Israel proper are a new kind of suicide bomber), with great destruction in Gaza? What will happen to Israel’s other Arab neighbors – will they hold back, will they feel the need to support Gaza, will they (especially the Iranian backed forces in Lebanon and Syria) use this as a time for their own incursions? Will it change the negotiations with Saudi Arabia, etc? Will it threaten the governing Israeli coalition and lead to the end of Netanyahu’s leadership?
So much to figure out. Beyond me.