It looked, two months ago, as if the Democrats would dominate the 2026 mid-term elections, taking a sizeable lead in the House and having a chance to flip the Senate. Two months later, I think this is still the case, although there has been a wild card or two (depending on your definitions) thrown into the race which might change things a bit, one way or the other (or both). Two months from now (and that is still five months from the elections), things might look different again.
The two things I am thinking about are the war in Iran (the Trump-Iran War), and the (perhaps inevitable) centrality of Jews and Israel in the thinking of so many people.
The Trump-Iran War is not very popular, and we don’t know where it will stand in early November. Tonight is the latest deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz or to see (in Trump’s rhetoric) the country blown back into the stone age, with all bridges and electric power plants destroyed. Whether Iran will cave or Trump will live up to his TACO habits, we don’t know on April 7 at 9 a.m. But we will find out. In any event this war, with looming price rises and shortages would seem to increase the Democrats’ chances, but again we really can’t yet tell. And wars obviously, good or bad wars, bring out patriotism and lead to accusations that those who oppose the wars are being anti-American, so you don’t yet know how the voters will react.
I have given up wondering why Jews and Israel (small people, small country) remain so often at the center of world thinking, and now just accept that. It is what it is.
We all know that the vast majority of Jews have voted with the Democrats at least since the New Deal days, and that is still the case, although Trump has managed to siphon off a surprising (to me, surprising) number of them, largely because of his outspoken support for Israel. No need now to analyze his reasons for this (plenty of time to do that), but it has had two effects. It has solidified or increased support of his administration by many Jews, largely orthodox Jews, but not only orthodox Jews, and to a great extent Jews with a lot of money and influence. And it has helped him hold onto support from the evangelical Christian community.
Both of these groups look at Israel from biblical perspectives, albeit very different biblical perspectives. For the Jews, the land of Israel is part of the Jews’ covenant with God, and rightfully belongs to them. For the evangelicals, the concentration of Jews in the biblical land of Israel is a necessary precursor to the end of days and the “second coming” of Jesus. Although their reasons, goals and expectations are radically different, these two groups are happy to ally with each other to support the current State of Israel, apparently no matter how it acts or what it does.
The Democrats were, too, always seen as supporters of Israel, from the day that Harry Truman rushed to have the United States recognize the new state in 1948. But today, in 2026, that support doesn’t seem as strong as it did in 1948 (or in, say, 1967). The younger generation of progressives have been raised in an era where social scientists have concentrated on the rights of indigenous ethnic groups to obtain self-realization and autonomy, and to view the eradication of European colonialism throughout the world as helping these groups reach those goals. Many of them have come to understand Israel as one of the last remnants of European or American (read: western) colonialism, in spite of the fact that the majority of Israelis did not come from Europe, but from other parts of the Middle East and North Africa.
While people talk about the Jewish lobby (which has been indeed strong), perhaps the Arab or Muslim lobby (or lobbies) which have concentrated not only on politics, but also on academics and media influences, has been even stronger. The big question of course seems to be whether the land of Israel is Jewish land or Muslim land, and the second big question is how to define the boundaries of that land. There has never been a Palestinian state in what is now Israel; before World War I, it was part of the Turkish run Ottoman Empire, and between World War I and 1948, it was controlled by Great Britain as the mandate overseer under the auspices of, first, the League of Nations and then the United Nations. And it was the United Nations who recognized the State of Israel as a sovereign state after the British withdrew from administering under the UN mandate.
The relationship between Israel and its Palestinian neighbors in Gaza and on the West Bank of the Jordan River has vacillated between terrible and really terrible. No peace plan or boundary lines has been able to be agreed upon. And both sides have committed egregious errors, although it was clearly the Palestinians and Israel’s other Arab neighbors who started the fight when they jointly attacked the new state in 1948.
The attack on Israel in October 2023 from Hamas (an Iranian financed group which controlled Gaza) was an outrage. No question about it. And Jews and Israelis and supporters of Israel expected the world to agree that it was an outrage. But the world did not take this position. Much of the world seemed to say that the Israelis had it coming to them. And this was a shock.
On the other hand, Israel’s reprisals on the population of Gaza was (and is) extraordinarily harsh, and Israel’s most nationalist groups, which now have control of Israel’s government, also encouraged Israelis living in the occupied West Bank to rise up against their Palestinian neighbors, causing more distress and problems. All this fueled the “progressive” opposition in the west.
Back to the elections. The Democratic Party has a strong progressive wing. The Trump Party wants to portray this as the core of the Democratic Party, which it really is not, but the Trump Party is often very effective in its propaganda. Many of the progressive Democrats are also members of (maybe not formal members) of the Democratic Socialists. Bernie Sanders is an obvious example, but there are others. And the Democratic Socialists, which has a lot of influence, especially among younger progressive Democrats, has taken a harsh anti-Israel and pro-Palestinian position, and has required a number of pledges from any candidates for office (local and state; not only federal) to take – including not taking money from Zionists, not attending certain events, supporting the BDS movement and so forth).
This may put many main line Democrats in a bad position, and many left leaning Democrats. If you support the Democratic Socialist position on Israel, you may get for yourself progressive votes that you otherwise would not have received. But you will lose your Jewish votes, for the most part. If you don’t take the pledge (which most will not), you will perhaps retain your Jewish votes, but not get the progressive votes you otherwise would. A lose/lose situation if I have ever seen one. And, it is in fact worse, because this debate bleeds from one electoral district to another. Even if a pro-Israel Democrat lives in a district, for example, where none of this matters as to the election because the candidates are not focused on this issue, that pro-Israel Democrat will certainly hear what is going on elsewhere in the country. Because of this, if the Democratic Party is believed to harbor a bunch of anti-Israel folks, or even moderately anti-Israel (“I love Israel, but don’t want to give them a blank check.”) candidates, the pro-Israel voter may choose not to support the Democratic candidate, whoever he or she might be.
So this situation is a wild card in the upcoming elections, and we don’t know if, or how much, it might determine outcomes. As an aside, of course, we have the question of antisemitism, which will be thrown at progressive Democrats, who might not at all be antisemitic. And those who accuse them will include the pro-Israel far right evangelicals who, pro-Israel they may be for the reasons stated above, are in fact, in their heart of heart, antisemitic. That is part of the problem of equating opposition to Israel policies or actions, on the one hand, and antisemitism on the other, something that many Israeli politicians want to equate on the theory that this will help, rather than hurt, Israel. I disagree.
And as a further conflation, take the Trump-Iran War, and the Israeli-Iran War. They are both going on at the same time. But are they the same war? And if American opposition to the Trump War will hurt the Republicans, will it also increase all of the differences within the Democratic Party that I have referred to in this post? And will it potentially increase or decrease antisemitism in this country?
A lot more to say on these subjects. But not today.













