Sorry for the delay today. I left the house early this morning to go with a friend to the open rehearsal of this weekend’s National Symphony Orchestra concert at the XXXXX-Kennedy Center. It was my first visit to the XXXXX-Kennedy Center since XXXXX added his name to it and announced that it would close in a few months for a renovation which would take out everything but its steel supports and start all over. I had vowed not to go into that building again, but the NSO is pretty much stuck there for various reasons and the NSO is worth supporting.
Does the building need a top to bottom redo? Not from anything I (or any one else) can tell, but I did realize what XXXXX doesn’t like about it. One thing that XXXXX doesn’t like is open space (XXXXX abhors a vacuum) and the XXXXX-Kennedy Center has a lot of open space in the concerts venues, and in all of the common space, where the hallways and rooms are wide, and ceilings very very tall. The thing that XXXXX craves is gold, and there certainly is insufficient gold in the XXXXX-Kennedy Center. The building’s architecture is, in a sense, minimalist (at least closer by far to minimalist than to maximalist), and there is no frivolous wall decor. All that will, I am sure, be remedied in the makeover.
The rehearsal itself was interesting. One of the pieces on this weekend’s program is Tchaikovsky’s First Symphony, and the entire 2 plus hour rehearsal was devoted to the third and fourth movement of that piece. At first, the orchestra played the entire third movement. It sounded very good. Gianandrea Noseda, the conductor of the NSO, then announced that the orchestra had never played that movement before (it rehearsed the first and second movements yesterday), which surprised the few of hundred of us listening. He then went through an hour of very intense rehearsing, sometimes playing a portion over several times, discussing various things with the members, and so forth. After an intermission, he went through the same process with the fourth movement. I have never been to an open rehearsal which was so intense, so detailed. Usually, they are more like dress rehearsals of a play.
Before I went to the rehearsal, I did turn on the press conference given this morning by Pete Hegseth and General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. about the status of the war XXXXX is waging against Iran. I missed most of what Hegseth said, but was surprised when Caine referred to members of the military at his “teammates” and then to the assembled members of the press as his “teammates”. Teams are what you put together for games and sports. Not for killing other people.
I have no idea how this war will turn out. It will be complicated. You think Ukraine is a big country, and therefore difficult for Russia to conquer? Well, do you know that Iran’s area is almost three times that of Ukraine? 220,000 square miles in Ukraine; 636,000 square miles in Iran. And as to population, Ukraine has just under 40 million, while Iran has a little more than 90 million. 90% of Iranians, or about 80 million Iranians are Shiite Muslim. The Supreme Leader of Iran, by its 1979 Constitution, is required to be an educated cleric who is not a religious leader per se, but who is the final authority on how the Islamic Republic of Iran interprets and enforces Islamic law.
Notwithstanding the overwhelming number of Shiite Iranians, a large survey conducted less than two years ago by a Dutch based company, GAMAAN, concluded that, irrespective of citizens’ religious identification, between 70% and 80% of the population do not support the current form of government.
What to do with that information, I don’t know. After all, what are we trying to accomplish in Iran? My best guess is “we want to make Iran disappear as if it never existed”. This, as you can see from above, is not possible. But anything less than that seems unsatisfactory to XXXXX and his crew. If Iran surrendered today, for example, we would not know what to do. So it would have to be a surrender, along with what? Disabling all means of carrying on
warfare? Getting rid of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards? Making sure there is a satisfactory government in place?
Each of these things seems impossible. Are we going to leave Iran to fight it out in a civil war? That doesn’t seem to serve our interests. How are we going to deal with the members of the IRGC? Or the high ranking Shiite clergy? Or the officials in the current government? If there is to be a transition to a new form of government, there will have to be a transition period. Who will police Iran and keep its society in control while that transition is taking place? Will we, or we and allies acting in concert, become an occupying power?
We clearly don’t have an exit strategy (we never seem to), but in this case it seems to be worse. In this case, we don’t know to whom, when we choose to exit, we will cede power, or how we will be able to do that without the eruption of serious violence. In other words, XXXXX’s exit from Iran may be bumpier that Biden’s from Afghanistan.
So far, the U.S. and Israel have proven their ability to inflict pain on a country exceeds that country’s ability to defend itself. But we already knew that. What we don’t know is how having a war which has already touched more than a half dozen countries and threatens more will be accepted by those countries’ citizens, or what the individual responses might be. We do know that American military bases and diplomatic quarters are fair game. And we now know that high level American civilian government personnel have been made fair game by our making Iranian high level officials our targets. What do they say about chickens coming home to roost?
And what about the 1 million (yes, 1 million) Americans who are now stuck in Middle Eastern countries bound up in this war. The XXXXX administration has told them two things: First, “Get out!” Second, when both air space and ground routes are blocked, “Too bad, but we can’t help you.” This is, is it not, unconscionable when connected to a war whose existence and timing was of our own choosing. This is potentially exponentially worse than our exit from Afghanistan.
I will stop here. After all, in Tehran it is already tomorrow.



























