So I was wrong when I suggested that the proposal to redo the Congressional districts in Virginia to favor the Democrats would not pass. Yesterday’s election showed that Virginia will have (barring Court interference) new districts at least for the 2026 midterms. The proposal to redo the districts passed by 3 percentage points, 51.5% to 48.5%, or by a little fewer than 100,000 votes in an overall vote of just over 3,000,000. But in the election for governor of the state (okay, the Commonwealth), only 5 months ago, Democrat Abigail Spanberger won by over 15%, so at least I was on the right track.
The GOP will of course run to the Courts, and will certainly forum shop for the right District judge in Virginia, but it will probably be a tall order, even for our Trump-tilting Supreme Court in light of previous decisions, but you never can tell. But will it will mean is that a quite purple state will be almost entirely represented by blue members of Congress. Is that alright? On the one hand, it looks unfair. On the other hand, if there is a full state race, say for a Senate seat, and the winner wins by one vote out of 3 million, the winner still wins and the losing party is out of luck. So maybe it is just a question of how you look at it.
As of now, it looks like there will be an extended ceasefire in Iran. For how long? For as long as Trump wants it to continue. It might never end; it might end by noon. We don’t know and the Iranian people don’t know. In the meantime, there seems to be no ceasefire in the Persian Gulf or in the Strait of Hormuz. Both sides seem to feel that they can do whatever they want (as long as they don’t attack each other, I guess), and the third party shippers and the worldwide customers are the victims. Just like the victims of the American strikes on Iran have been ordinary Iranians (by the numbers), if Iranian political and military leaders (by the percentages).
There seems to be a feeling in the United States that Iran is a country of democratic-leaning citizens and religiously radical leaders. I would suggest that this is not fully the case. As in most countries, the residents of large urban areas, more educated and worldly than their rural counterparts, tend to favor more sophisticated forms of government. So when you look at Tehran, where the large metropolitan area contains about 15% of the total population of the country, and in other major cities, you do have a lot of support for a different form of government. But the rural population is probably much more religiously conservative, and (this is a guess on my part) provides an outsized number of members of the IRGC and the military.
In other words, Iran, like other countries, is complex, and even if the majority of its residents would like to see a major governmental shift, the existing government, with its exclusive control of internal power, is not fully unrepresentative of the country. And clearly all elements of the country – religious or not, educated or not, governmental supporters or not – are very patriotic and do not want to see their country become a vassal of the United States of Trump.
So while Trump may think that Iran is just another Venezuela (assuming that Venezuela is just another Venezuela), it isn’t. Years ago (many, many years ago), I read through a Penguin paperback on the history of Iran by a man named Roman Ghirshman (no, I didn’t remember his name; had to Google the book, simply called Iran), a Ukrainian born, French archeologist who spent 30 years in Persia/Iran and died in Budapest. I remember (I think) that he started the book (written in 1954) saying that the Persians/Iranians felt that they lived in the center of the world, that their civilization was the oldest and most central to human history. And I remember scoffing at that, but – by the end of the book – thought that this might just be correct.
That’s all I remember. No details at all. But since then I have understood that, in dealing with Iran, we are dealing with a very proud, and very accomplished people. This is not Venezuela, a still young former Spanish colony in the tropics of South America.
So, que sera, sera (as Gogi Grant or Rosemary Clooney or someone else, but not Theresa Brewer, used to say), and as they still must say in Venezuela. We will see what happens in Iran. But a few things are clear: neither side wants to give in and neither side will, and neither side is trustworthy, meaning that the results of the negotiations (should they actually continue to take place) and the results on the ground may have nothing in common with each other. And whatever is decided by either on Tuesday can be undecided by Wednesday evening. We are playing a long game here.
I gotta run. Rockville calls.



























































