The Macro Topic:

The New York Times just reported that the United States today bombed a missle launch site in Southern Iran. My “bold prediction” of Saturday morning has come true.

I say that with regret, because it does not seem necessary to start active warfare as negotiations are actively ongoing. But it was inevitable.

How did I conclude that? Well, I have been watching a German Netflix series Murder Mindfully, an odd comic noire series, featuring the adventures of a young Berlin lawyer, Björn Diemel, whose only client is an emotionally challenged mob boss named Dragan Sergowicz. Early in the series, Björn actually murders his client, but needs to pretend he is still alive, but off the grid, and that he has empowered Björn to follow his orders and act in his stead. Otherwise, how would he get paid (or stay alive)? Their ways of negotiating are very Trumpian. I will give you an example.

Björn and his wife are having trouble finding a pre-school which will accept their daughter Emily. No one wants the child of a Mafioso attorney in a class.

So what does Björn do? He, and one of Dragan’s henchmen, visit the school, and tell the head of school and two teachers that they are fired because Dragan is taking over the ownership of the entire school. They make them a generous financial offer, but three hesitate, so they break a couple of noses, and plant false material on the school website showing that the three are affiliated with several Nazi organizations. They also drastically cut the proposed financial terms. An offer that can’t be refused? Well, if it is, there is still one nose to break and worse things possible. And if, instead, they say “Okay”, that still might not be enough to curtail further punishment.

Trump has said Iran must completely surrender, but he has also said that if they open Hormuz, other issues may be settled later. Issues like the ones he went to war for – nuclear program, missle delivery systems, funding proxies in Gaza, Lebanon, and Yemen, regime change. Only Hormuz may be solved, and the only reason there is a problem at the Strait in the first place is Trump’s war. Status quo ante, indeed.

But today, with each of his goals out of apparent sight, Iran wants nuclear freedom, military weapon development freedom, the right to control and levy tolls on ships passing through the Strait, $25 billion in withheld funds released, sanctions released, and more. Trump does not seem on the cusp of resolving any of this. And what does he do now? He wants no more Israeli fighting in Lebanon (except for clear defense), and he wants Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon to join the Abraham Accords. Apples? Oranges?

Remember Yassir Arafat? He would negotiate a deal, but could never finalize it. Always walking away, one way or another, at the last minute. Trump may be our Arafat.

The great negotiator has met his match.

The Micro Topic:

A random walk around a random block. What are the signs of our time?

Also seen were a some bicyclists and a studious resident with big ears, and one more sign either with great meaning or no meaning at all (take your pick).