First, a personal reflection. I first went to New Hampshire in the winter of 1960-1961. I went with some of my college freshman friends to spend the weekend in the vacation cottage of the family of one of my friends in Derry. The ground was snow covered – the temperature was frigid. It was not a good weekend. We didn’t know it, but the cottage was not winterized. There was no heat. There was no water. The bathroom was the back yard. Obviously, no one slept. I forget how what or how we ate. We only stayed the one night. How in hell did I stay friends with that guy?

Okay, that was then, and this is now:

I watched Donald Trump give his New Hampshire victory speech this evening. It was short, but not sweet, and it provided a fair amount of false information. Trump said that he won the last three presidential primaries and the last two general elections in New Hampshire. That is what he said – but in fact he lost New Hampshire both to Clinton and to Biden.

He also said that, as of the time he was giving his speech, he was ahead of Haley in the primary by 14 points. In fact, he was less than 12 points ahead and, as I write this, with 50% of the votes in, his lead is now about 11 points.

He also said that South Carolina allowed Democrats to vote in the Republican primary, and they were voting for Haley. This was another distortion, because Democrats cannot vote in the New Hampshire Republican primary. Only registered Republicans and Independents can vote, and the deadline for changing party registration was some time in October. He also said that Democrats can vote in the Republican primary because the current Republican governor (who supports Haley) is a terrible governor and he lets the Democrats vote. Obviously wrong.

And finally, in talking about immigration, he said that the southern border was being inundated by people coming out of jails and mental institutions, and that they were drug dealers – again this is nothing that he can give any evidence of.

What does that show? Just more lying? Or, since these were not lies that really mattered, does it show mental deterioration?

But it got me thinking. If I lived in New Hampshire, and if I was a registered Independent, but thought as I think today (and how could I think otherwise?), who would I vote for? Would I vote for Haley because she is obviously a better alternative than Trump (although I wouldn’t likely vote for her in the general election), or would I vote for Trump? Why would I vote for Trump? I would do that on the gamble that, no matter how old Joe Biden may be, no matter how many people cross the southern border, and no matter how many wars are raging around the world, the majority of Americans won’t vote for Trump, and won’t sway the Electoral College in his direction. A gamble to be sure, but maybe one worth taking.

CNN’s exit poll said that the issue most concerning Republicans was the southern border. I have long said that the two issues that are the worst for the Democrats are Biden’s age and the perception that the border is completely open. It looks like I may be right. And one of these problems can’t be changed, and it may be too late to change the other.

The Republicans also point to the Trump four years as being years without any wars. This isn’t exactly correct, because there were hostilities here and there now and then. But it is true that the years 2016-2020 were calmer that, say, 2024. To say this is Biden’s fault is more than a stretch, although you can argue that the Biden response has not been the best.

But what about those peaceful Trump years? I would say that the following countries came out of the Trump years much stronger and more directed than they were before Trump took office: China, Russia, North Korea and Iran. And that they were held in check in part because everyone in the world was responding to the COVID pandemic during 2020. You can say the problems of the world today germinated under Trump, not Biden

Republicans obviously won’t change their mind on this, but I wonder if some independent voters will agree with them. And I think that the same is true regarding our economy and the status of inflation. The first is growing and the second is not – but do facts matter?

My conclusion ? I will spend 2024 worried about our politics. My college friend Peter Coppelman (who was not in New Hampshire), formerly a lawyer, now a poet, wrote a poem titled “Worry……after Mary Oliver”, which starts:

“I am a worrier

Like Mary Oliver.

Even worse.

I am a catastrophizer

It’s like worrying

On Speed

Magnified

Blown up

To the nth degree…..”

And look what I found yesterday :