By and large, the people who live in cities and the people who live in rural areas vote very differently. In the United States, for example, if you look at the vote in cities – even in very red states – they tend to favor the Democratic candidate. It is difficult to fine a large city that votes Republican. Even Jacksonville, the only Florida city that tends to vote for the more conservative candidate, just elected a Democrat as mayor. In Texas, all the cities vote Democratic, I believe, except for Ft. Worth. One of the only states where the large cities vote Republican is Oklahoma. In Ohio’s 2020 presidential election, Columbus, Cincinnati, Dayton, Cleveland and Akron – the largest cities – all voted Democratic. The rest of the state voted for Trump.

It’s not only true in the United States. There would have been no Brexit if only the cities in Britain voted. Hitler would never have become German chancellor if the Berlin vote was the only determinant. Erdogen would not be chancellor if it was only up to Istanbul.

Why this is almost always the case, I am not sure. In the United States, it has been because of minority groups (including Blacks, Hispanics and Jews) in the cities, and the educated elite who live in the cities. And this pattern has been set for some time, without change. But with regard to 2024, maybe there will be a change. If the minority groups who populate the cities do not support Joe Biden, for example, he will most certainly lose the election to Donald Trump. And, so far, the Biden presidency and the Biden campaign has been losing much of the minority voters, if the polling is even somewhat correct.

But let’s look at the broader picture. What is getting Trump so much support that it overrides his obvious flaws and dangers?

(1) There has long been a strong isolationist trend in American political thinking, and Trump is capitalizing on it through his America First message, and his hard talk against China, and his desire to stop American involvement in Ukraine. Remember, Woodrow Wilson, before he brought the US into World War I, was the candidate who ran for his second term on the slogan “He kept us out of war”. Franklin Roosevelt couldn’t overcome the strong neutrality feelings in the this country for years, until the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor and the Nazis declared war on the United States. Perhaps candidate Eisenhower’s most important promise was extricating us from the Korean War. And the more recent military adventures of the US, in Vietnam, in Iraq and in Afghanistan have not, let us say, been resounding successes.

So Trump’s promise to end our support of Ukraine, and to weaken NATO, perhaps by eliminating our pledge to come to the defense of attacked NATO members, is also attractive, as is his promise to befriend Putin and Erdogen and Xi and Kim Jong Un.

(2) There has long been a strong anti-immigration strain the this country. Until about 100 years ago, the relatively empty United States welcomed virtually all immigrants. The only action that had been taken in this country was the Chinese Exclusion Act, which dated from the 1880s. Virtually anyone else was allowed into the country. This changed in the 1920s, when it was realized that the immigrants coming into the country were not all German, English or Swedish, but included millions of Jews, Italians and Irish, and the Italians became anarchists, the Irish drunkards, and the Jews became ……. whatever you wanted to accuse them of being. So our borders were virtually closed and remained largely closed (helping contribute to the death of millions of Jews in the Holocaust) through World War II.

Then, over the last 50 years or so, the nature of immigrants changed. Asians (Japanese, Chinese, Vietnamese, Indians, Pakistanis) became dominant, then Caribbeans and Central Americans (Cubans, Haitians, Salvadorans, Hondurans, and so forth) and Mexicans, followed by pressure from Muslim countries. All this fed into this anti-immigrant sentiment, and when the numbers increased because of external conditions, this sentiment grew exponentially. And, because Congress found itself unable to make policy changes reflecting the world as it exists today (what else is new?), the answer for many is simply: close the borders. Trump’s promise to do this and disallow asylum seekers, is welcomed by those who fear immigration, and his promise to be especially tough on Muslims is more than welcome. Lastly, the thought that drugs, and especially fentanyl, are being brought in illegally by immigrants (whether or not this is the case in fact) is frightening enough that a closed border seems an imperative.

(3) America’s religiosity might be declining, as religiosity seems to be declining throughout the majority-Christian world, but it is still high, and those who stick to strong beliefs in particular dogmas are certainly afraid of the social programs of Democrats, which threaten the way they want their children to be raised and taught. Women’s health autonomy (abortion, etc.) is of course a part of this, as are all of the culture wars being fought in schools across the country. For those who believe our society should be run with what you might call Christian sharia law, or those who at least want to themselves to be able to organize their lives around these principles, electing any Republican is crucial. And the fear that a Democratic president may be in a position to nominate the next Supreme Court justices looms over everything.

(4) Finally, there is a rural fear of the educated urban elite. This is not an irrational fear, as the educated urban elite and rural Americans tend to look at so many issues from opposing sides. The Democrats epitomize elitists, and it appears to those on the right that the Democrats want everyone to believe what the elite believes – no God, tolerance to minorities, affirmative action and so forth. Donald Trump may be a New Yorker, but he is clearly not a member of the educated urban elite. He is treated by the elite as an outsider, and that is crucial to his supporters. If the elite doesn’t like Trump, that’s good enough for us, they think. He must be doing something right.

All of this seems to override the positive things Biden has done. “It’s the economy, stupid” does not seem to apply today. And the world has clearly gone awry – Ukraine, Israel – for sure, and Taiwan perhaps. Inflation in the US may be less than elsewhere, but it still has hurt many people, and pointing out that wages are outdoing inflation doesn’t get you votes from those for whom that is not true.

Biden at 81 and showing signs of it (even though this may have no effect on his competence), and his inability to connect with Black and Hispanic voters (and Arab voters in places like Michigan) does not help the situation. As charismatic as Trump is to so many, Biden appears to have the opposite effect to an equal number. Whether or not people are being rational in their lack of support for Biden is not the important point. The important point is simply that there is a lack of support for Biden, even among those who should approve, or in fact do approve, his policies.

Alas, poor Biden, I knew him well. And it’s time for him to step aside.