One thing is clear from history, and that is that the victors get all the credit. But that’s history – it didn’t always seem that way to the victors at the time.

It’s another fact of history that the ends justify the means – there have been a lot of empires, for example, that were founded on unspeakable wars and horrors, but what is remembered are not the wars and horrors, but the empires. My guess is that, at the time, things did not seem so clear.

So it does appear that Israel is about to march into northern Gaza with the goals of destroying Hamas, destroying a network of tunnels, and (maybe) saving some of the hostages. It may be, in fact, that Israel only has the first two of these goals – Israel’s government may have already decided that saving the hostages will not be possible, and that they will be sacrificed for the greater good. We don’t know.

What is clear is that there will be hundreds (probably thousands) of additional casualties. Casualties on both sides, but more on the Palestinian side (unless Hezbollah enters the war and then all bets are off). Many of those killed or injured will be children (although many of those who stormed into Israel, and certainly those who throw stones even in times of cold peace, are children – i.e., under the age of 18). And there will not be a way to treat the injured Palestinians because the Gaza hospitals will be out of commission. Things will become very messy.

Much of the world will turn against Israel once again, the Abraham Accords will be under tremendous pressure, Joe Biden and his team will come under enormous criticism for supporting Israel’s incursion into Gaza, and antisemitism around the world may increase. Yes, these are the things that will happen even if (and perhaps even especially if), Israel’s tactics are successful and Israel “wins” the war.

But if this war ends the possibility of Israel being endangered by a criminal element in Gaza, Israel will be a safer place (at least from that direction) and other enemies of Israel may think long and hard before replicating the massacre which Hamas brought about. And one day, guess what? The Gaza incursion and all the casualties will be forgotten and Israel will be deemed once again to be a miracle nation. We may not see that time, but that does not mean that that time will not come.

It’s a long game. But this is the way history works. But in the meantime, there will be trauma both in Israel and in Gaza and among Israel’s supporters and enemies. Questions will be asked: was it worth it? Did they go too far? Could it have been done another way? If Israel hadn’t done what it did, would there have been even more carnage because its enemies would have been emboldened? And there will be no answers to these questions……ever.

Several days ago, I said that I was not a military strategist (or did I say military tactician)? And, several days later, nothing has changed. Maybe Israel now knows what it is doing. Maybe they have it all sussed out. Maybe civilian casualties would be eliminated for the most part if only the Gazans would evacuate the north and move south, as being instructed to by everyone but their own leaders. We will see.

But I doubt it. And I assume that, after the Israelis are finished with Gaza, Gaza City will be a history – flattened like so many other cities in history. What will the Gazans do then? Will the other Arab nations – Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and so forth, take them in and give them a new chance for a life? Will they drop their animosity towards Israel once their new life takes hold? Will peaceful relations between Israel and its Abraham Accord partners continue as if nothing happened. Will the destruction of the Gaza infrastructure allow for the building of something new and less crowded, filled with Palestinians who, along with the majority of West Bank Palestinians, be ready for a long term commitment to peace with Israel?

Hard to imagine, right? Almost impossible? And, unless this happens, what has Israel really accomplished?