In 1948, at the time the State of Israel came into existence, the Gaza strip was under the control of Egypt, and had an estimated 80,000 residents. At the time of the 1967 Six Day War, when Egypt was defeated, and Israel took over control of both Gaza and Sinai from Egypt, the population of the Gaza Strip was approximately 300,000. Today, 55 years later, it is over 2 million. It has grown to 2,000,000 as a result of, through the early 1990s, the average Gazan woman having over 8 children, and even today, having an average of more than 4 children, giving it one of the world’s highest fertility rates. This also means that, when you look at Gaza’s population, you see it is a very young population. The median age of a resident of Gaza is approximately 18. The median age in Israel is closer to 30, which is also close to the median age world wide. When your median age is only 18, one thing can be fairly certain. Your population will continue to expand at a rapid rate as years go on. Is it any wonder that Gaza is always ready to explode?

When Egypt and Israel signed a treaty for the first time in 1973, after the Yom Kippur War, in return for recognition and other benefits, Israel gave up the Sinai and returned it to Egypt. It would have given up Gaza as well, I am sure, but Egypt didn’t want it, one example of the greater Arab world shucking off responsibility for the Palestinian Arabs. Gaza remained under Israeli occupation until 2005, when Israel – under fiery prime minister Ariel Sharon – pulled its military out of Gaza, and, at some cost, required all Israeli Jews to leave Gaza, in the hope that peace would be the result. It was a complete pullout from the Gaza territory, but not from its connection to Gaza, because Gaza was dependent on Israel for a number of things, including its electric power, some of its food supply, some of its water supply, and more. And of course, Israel was concerned about its own security, controlling two of the three land entries into Gaza (the third is controlled by Egypt), and wanting to keep materiel that could be used for military purposes from entering Gaza, whether by land, sea or air. So, although not occupied, Gaza was still somewhat beholden to Israel, and to Egypt with whom Israel was cooperating.

From 1948 onward, Palestinian ideology has viewed Israel as an occupying power, occupying land rightfully belonging to Palestinians, not to Jews, who were viewed as European (or North African, or Asian) occupiers. Of course, as your high school math shows you, if the population of Gaza was only 80,000 in 1948 and is now over 2,000,000, virtually no one now alive in Gaza had any personal connection with land that is now Israel at any time. Yet, the ideology remains (as had the Jewish people’s belief in the “right of return” for millenia).

In 2006, less than two years after Israel gave up military occupation, after an election that may or may not have legitimate, and some intense internal battles, the ruling Palestinian Authority was replaced by Hamas as the government of Gaza. Today, there is no reason to think that the majority of Gaza does not support Hamas, a militant organization created in the late 1980s with the support of the Muslim Brotherhood, headquartered in Egypt.

Hamas makes no bones about it. It’s charter talks about the destruction or obliteration of the State of Israel (which is of course does not mention by name), and the creation of a Palestinian state throughout what is now Israel, the West Bank and Gaza. It rejects the continual existence of Israel, and certainly is not in favor of a two state solution. So, the idea of Israel (or anyone else) negotiating a settlement with Israel is fantasy.

I try to figure out what Hamas was thinking about when they launched this horrific attack on Israel. My guess is that even they were surprised at how successful it was, and that they have hopes that it will become more successful yet. What do I mean by that?

Clearly Hamas knows it cannot win a conventional war with Israel. It must also have known that the majority of its soldiers sent into Israel would die – that this would be a suicide mission for them. How much religious longing for martyrdom and dozens of virgins were in the mind of these pawns of Hamas, I don’t know. Obviously, for some it meant nothing, and for some it meant something.

I am assume that Hamas is ecstatic about having brought 150 Israelis back to Gaza as hostages. This clearly changes the dynamics of the conflict – unless Israel decides to proceed as if the hostages weren’t there. I think that’s a possibility, although an unlikely one.

I also assume that Hamas thought that Israel’s resistance would be weakened by its internal political dissension, especially as so many reservists seemed to suggest that they would stay at home in bed if called to active duty. This was a miscalculation.

But, at the end, I think that Hamas hoped (expected, knows) that other forces might join the battle – the large numbers of young men in the West Bank, the Iranian backed groups hanging out in Lebanon and Syria, maybe the Arabs living within Israel and maybe Iran itself. Yes, if that happens, all bets are off as to how things would end.

And, just as both Israeli and intelligence failed in Gaza (where it should have been relatively easy), it is probably even more weak in these other places, so it may be that – today – no one knows what likely steps third parties might take.

As Israel pummels Gaza, we will see what the reactions are. How will the hostages fare? And at what point will Iran or others say “enough, already”, we are entering the battle?

And what if no one joins in, and Hamas says “you win for now”? There will still be 2 million people in Gaza, and more as time goes on. All waiting for the opportunity to take revenge against those who are today doing the same.

More to come……unfortunately. Keep tuned.