I must admit that I don’t understand the growing sentiment that Putin is OK, Russia is OK and Ukraine may just become collateral damage. Growing sentiment in parts of Europe; and growing sentiment here in the U.S. of A.

Here is my brief history. Once upon the time, the world knew conquest and empire and eventually, the tsarist Russian empire covered land that included today’s Ukraine. Then, the tsars were overthrown and a new “union” of separate soviet “republics” was formed. Boundaries for the various soviet republics were determined. Ukraine, like Russia, was one of those “republics”. Then the Soviet Union broke up, and each of the soviet republics became, one after another, independent. It was determined (for example, with the USSR’s United Nations seat, that Russia, the largest of the Republics would be the heir of the USSR.

(By the way, there was a wrinkle, as I recall it. At first, the Crimean peninsula, important to Russia because it was the home of the Soviet (now Russian) naval fleet, was important to Russia and remained in Russia. But, during the Khrushchev years, for reasons I assume of efficient administration, Crimea was turned over to Ukraine, and remained there after the two governments separated.)

But some things were not so easy. The Soviet Union had been a nuclear power, and a parts of its nuclear facilities, including its nuclear arsenal, were located in other republics, such as Ukraine and, I think, Belarus and Kazakhstan. A treaty was signed in 1994 (I am not sure of the details) by which Belarus and Ukraine would turn their portion of the Soviet nuclear arsenal over to Russia in return for certain security assurances regarding the sanctity of their territory, including the territory of Crimea, although Russia was given long term leases so that its naval fleet could remain. The United States and Great Britain were also signatories to that agreement.

But Vladimir Putin, former Communist, former KGB official, had other ideas. He views the Soviet Union as one country, blames Gorbachev for allowing it to disintegrate, and Yeltsin for selling off its assets to the highest bidders (or to his best friends), and he seems to believe that he can put Humptiskii Dumptiskii back together again.

The place to start would be Ukraine, which has had a really interesting, but difficult history since its independence was declared. Really interesting, because its urban and educated classes have made it clear that they wanted to be part of the West, while much of its rural and poorly educated classes seemed to care less and to be more stuck in their conventional ways. In addition, the Ukraine government has been riddled with corruption and its leaders have vacillated between those favoring Russia and those favoring the West. When it became clear, with the elevation of TV actor Vlodymyr Zelensky as prime minister, that Ukraine seemed to be tending West and might be lost to greater Russia forever (and even become part of the European Union or NATO), he felt he had to act.

In 2014, Putin moved in and took the industrial and quite impoverished east of Ukraine (the Don basin) and Crimea. There was mumbling in the West, but no more throughout the Obama and Trump years, so in 2022, the time seemed ripe to move into the rest of Ukraine. He never expected the reaction he got, either from Ukraine or from the West. And the rest is history.

I believe one can rationally be on either side of the intellectual argument as to whether Ukraine and Russia are bound together by common history, or whether Ukraine, if it wants to be a part of NATO and the West, should be welcomed into that alliance. But I don’t see how you can rationally support the actions of Putin and Russia – the invasion, the bombings, the kidnappings, the violation of its previous treaty obligations, and so forth.

The unfortunate thing, of course, is Russia is a major, nuclear power, and Ukraine (although it could have been) is not. And Ukraine needs help, which it has been getting. Why has it been getting all this help? Several reasons. The principal of state territorial integrity. The danger of a Russia which is too powerful. The fear that Ukraine may be first, but Lithuania and Poland may be next and so forth.

But now there is backsliding. Some of Russia’s European neighbors are beginning to be concerned about potential Russian invasion and the way to keep that possibility at bay is to become friends with Russia. Some of Ukraine’s main supporters are wondering about the cost of continual help, including some major elements within the United States. We will see how this plays out. To date, the U.S. has done quite a job uniting most of Europe in the defense of Ukraine. I saw over the weekend the amount of money and materiel Europe is contributing. A greater percentage of their individual GDP calculations than we are in many cases. Can this continue?

To me, it’s simple. We committed to the defense of Ukraine, and we keep our commitments. A too powerful Russia would destabilize much of the world, and pose dangers to much of Europe. Appeasement (and that it what it would be) has been shown to be failing policy when dealing with a totalitarian state. Territorial integrity is crucial in a complicated world. Other powerful countries see the possibility of moving into their own Ukraines (like China moving onto Taiwan) if the world let’s Russia march right into its neighbors.

I would hope that our President keeps his strong stance on this subject, and that Congress follows suit. We are about to see what will happen as a bill to increase support of Ukraine is about to hit Congress. We know that there is now a growing sentiment among right wing Republicans that we should let Ukraine worry about Ukraine, while we worry about our border and our budget. This is not a new kind of sentiment – we had major sections of our populace very much against our involvement either in World War I or World War II. This is a repeat.

I expect, for now, we will keep our commitment to support Ukraine. But for how long can we really afford to do this? At some point, if the war does not end (and the end is not now in sight), the arguments against future involvement will grow. I hope that, within government circles, there is a Plan B, Plan C and Plan D, ready to go if necessary.

But I can’t guess the future. Nor can anyone else. There can be all sorts of twists and turns.

So what have I accomplished by this post? Not sure – there is so much more to think about – short term, mid-term, long-term. Putin won’t last forever. Zelensky won’t last forever. Biden won’t last forever. Trump won’t last forever. This war won’t last forever – but it might outlast all of today’s political leaders. The end may be way, way, way down the road.