Four things can bring down the Democrats in 2024. First, if the government defaults on its debts. Second, the situation at the southern border. Third, Joe Biden. Fourth, Kamala Harris.

These three factors can lead the Democrats to defeat in spite of the fact that the Republican front runner is an indicted felon, owes a woman $5 million, is mentally disturbed and is supported by a bunch of crazies in office and out of office. While it is now said that the majority of independent voters now would vote for Biden over Trump, it may not be that way 18 months from now. And, if the GOP candidate turns out to be someone other than Trump, the independents may swing towards that new candidate quickly.

(1) The debt. Yes, there should be no question about the country paying debts it has already incurred. Yes, the Republicans are as responsible for those debts as are the Democrats and perhaps even more responsible. But it is equally true that there needs to be decisions on next year’s federal budget, and while ideally those are two separate issues, the Republicans have brought them together and the Biden stance of “we will not negotiate” is not, to me, a politically winning stance. Good faith budget negotiations would have either led the GOP to agree to the debt extension, or put the Democrats in a position where it was the Republicans that looked foolish. Now, I am afraid that it’s the Democrats who look that way to the moderates of America, who look, typically, arrogant, unyielding and dismissive.

(2) The border. Yes, Congress has absolutely failed to provide the country with workable immigration and border control laws. Yes, the world situation is such that millions and millions of people need to leave their homes for someplace better, and this is something that we cannot control. Yes, in holding back immigration during his term, Trump both broke existing laws and creating hardship for many immigrating families. And yes, Democrats have deported and turned back millions of people, perhaps more than Republicans have. Nevertheless, millions have crossed the border during the Biden years and are now dispersed throughout the country, though still concentrated in border states, and many of them will avoid further processing and vanish into thin air. And, yes, politically, this is terrible for the Democrats.

What to do (if it isn’t too late): Replace Secretary Mayorkas. I don’t know if he is doing a good job or not, but he certainly doesn’t inspire confidence even to those (like me) who are on his side. Why keep him in this position to that he can be a target (maybe even an impeachment target) of the Republicans? Second, stake out a better position on the Trump wall. Maybe it doesn’t help in real life to keep people from coming across the border, but maybe we should pretend that it does in certain places and make it clear that the country will expand the wall in those places. The wall is a political wall, whether or not it really works. Third, be more transparent to the public with regard to statistics: people crossing, people being turned away, people being deported, people be processed, where people are living, what jobs are being unfilled because of the lack of immigrants who can fill them, etc.

(c) Joe Biden. He is too old to run in 2024. Period. He should know that – he should not be the third of the Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Diane Feinstein, Joe Biden trio. What does it say in Ecclesiastes? There’s a time for this, and a time for that? And this is the time to say “Good-bye”.

(d) Kamala Harris. People do not see Vice President Harris and President Harris. Whether she would make a great or a terrible president is at this point irrelevant. She is not seen as presidential. And anyone voting for an 82 year old man in 2024 knows that there is a good chance that he will not live out his term in good health, and that the Vice President will be called upon to take over. Because of how she is perceived, Kamala Harris as Vice Presidential candidate will discourage people from supporting Joe Biden for President.

Unfortunately, the Democrats won’t listen to me. And they threaten their own future and the future of the country by just carrying on as they have been. There is now, as you probably know, a new movement afoot. The No Label movement, led by moderates who wish a pox on both parties. That group may in fact succeed in putting a third candidate on the ballot in most or all states. Undoubtedly, such a candidate will draw more from the independent voters and from dissatisfied Democrats than from ideological right wing Republicans. A strong No Label candidate would most likely assure victory for the Republicans in 2024.

To forestall all of this the Democrats must get their act together and act fast. But guess what? Those are the two things that are least likely to do.