I learned a new word today. Autarky. A country which is economically self-sufficient is an autarky. The United States is obviously not an autarky. Apparently, North Korea is the country today which is closest to being an autarky. What it is not able to make or extract or grow itself, it just does without. Yes, North Korea can operate in isolation, but it certainly is not a place where any of us want to be.
I have not anyone heard anyone use to word “autarky” in discussing the Trump attempt to refine the American balance of trade. But I did recently hear an analyst say that, throughout the world, countries are looking to increase their self-sufficiency, something that will certainly rattle what has been a fairly accepted global economy. It is certainly what Trump has in mind.
I was thinking about this because I remember our extensive tour of western Turkey about 12 or so years ago. It was my first time in Turkey, and it became one of my favorite countries for many reasons. One of the reasons is that Turkey looked to me to be a self-sufficient country. It seemed to have everything.
For example, the agriculture of Turkey looked so prosperous that I thought Turkey could feed itself completely without looking outside the country. I had no idea (I still don’t know) whether this was an accurate impression, but every place looked fertile, and the country had such a variety of climates that it seemed so to me. Then, when we were in Istanbul, I remember walking through an area filled with shoe manufacturing companies, shoe stores, really everything that had anything to do with shoes. Blocks and blocks of businesses having to do with providing shoes for the Turks. Our shoes are all made in east Asia, with the exception of luxury brands made in Europe. It seemed clear to me that Turkey never had to depend on China for their shoes.
Then, we went to the metropolis of Bursa, an industrial center with a population of over 3 million. Maybe you have never heard of Bursa, located on the Sea of Marmara across from Istanbul, but it is an impressive place, filled, among other things, with large automobile plants. It seemed that Turkey must make everything it needs right in Bursa; I had not seen such extensive (and tasteful) architectural manufacturing plants anywhere else.
But it turns out that Turkey is not an autarky. Turkey has an energy shortage and imports most of its energy. But it also turns out that Turkey is apparently working hard to increase its energy production with more solar, wind, and other forms of renewable energy. It also turns out that Turkey is working hard to make its entire defense industry self-sufficient, not dependent on the U.S. or Russia or anywhere else. And it looks like it might succeed. Finally, Turkey is now operating, according to sources I looked at, with a positive balance of trade, something that most countries strive for.
Of course, Turkey has its problems. And they are big ones, including employment problems, inflation, religious fundamentalism, and a power hungry leader who wants to stay in power at all costs. But, with regard to economic sufficiency, it seems to be on the right path.
It is hard to find countries who are not dependent on the global market. North Korea is one, but it costs them too much to be so. Turkey is striving to be one, but it will probably never succeed in its entirety. I couldn’t find a perfect index on the internet, and most of the articles I did find concentrated on food. In order to be self sufficient in food, you need a wide variety of climates and you need a sophisticated agricultural center. The countries with the greatest amount of food sources are places like Argentina, because of its climate and fertility, and New Zealand, in part because of its limited population.
Trump would like to turn the US into an autarky. It’s a big task. It can not be done without throwing the entire world into a global marlstrom, and when that happens, we become the center of that maelstrom, particularly if it is attempted to be done too quickly, with everything changing at the same time.
If Trump concentrated on only certain segments of the economy – pharmaceuticals and electronics for example – there might be a chance over time. But that is obviously not his style.
His style is to destroy worldwide and then to rebuild in this country, the rest of the world be damned. It will not work. And in destroying everything around him, he will destroy himself. We already see this coming.