For some time now, we have been hearing that the death toll in Gaza has been about 45,000. A terrible number, particularly since so many of them were children. But today (or maybe it was yesterday), we see that Lancet, in Britain, has put out a study, apparently well researched and well reviewed, that the number of closer to 65,000. That is almost 3% of the Gaza population. If 3% of Americans were killed in a war, we would lose over 10,000,000 fellow citizens.

So, with this in mind, anything that stops further deaths in Gaza is more than welcome. And if 33 hostages are released, that’s to the good, of course. But: (1) there will still be more than 60 hostages held in Gaza, (2) Hamas is still, at least for now, in charge in Gaza, planning to stay and planning to attack Israel again in the future, (3) there is still no clear plan on how to rebuild Gaza or how to govern Gaza in the future. And, as we know, this deal, which is being done in phases, could self-destruct at any time. The current phase only lasts 60 days and even it must be approved by the Israeli cabinet. So we will have to see.

And as we watch how everything plays out, we also have to keep this in mind. Hamas’ leadership continues to maintain that their platform is “from the river to the sea”, and does not want to have a peaceful ever after agreement with Israel, and my guess is that, although there are many Gazans who are still numb from shock and exhausted, there are many others who agree fully with Hamas’ leadership on this point. And the far right in Israel, an absolutely central and necessary part of the Netanyahu coalition, also seems to have a “from the river to the sea” policy, and beyond that, places no trust in Gaza to know its place and stay there.

So we have a long way to go. I am far from comfortable.

There is also a lot of rebuilding that will have to be done, in both Gaza and Los Angeles. Think about how hard it will be to rebuild the part of Los Angeles that is now in ruins. Infrastructure must be repaired or reconstructed, all of the ruined material must be carted away, houses, commercial buildings and public buildings have to be rebuilt, and so forth. And while this is going on (and it will take years, as we know), the people directly affected (I am not sure how many that is – but I would guess it to be at least 50,000) must have a place to live, a place to go to school, a way to collect whatever insurance they might be entitled to, and the possibility of returning to their old neighborhood at some time, or if not returning, at least not suffering from below market forced sales. This is all very complicated and – oh yes, it’s very expensive. And the actions that will be undertaken with respect to each house, each building, each school, each everything, will require coordination and agreements with many interested stakeholders. Think how hard that will be.

Now, think about Gaza, where the number of people affected is not 50,000, but closer to 2,000,000. Gaza, where the debris that must be carted away are not only destroyed buildings, but military equipment, some of which may still be in danger of exploding, and where there just happens to be no obvious place to put any of it. Gaza, where the idea of property insurance probably does not exist, and most of the residents are not even middle class and have no jobs, and no assets. Gaza, where Israel will continue to make sure that no material that can be converted to military use will be allowed into the territory. Gaza, where all food must be imported as well as all building materials. Gaza, where the population can’t go somewhere else to wait out the rebuilding period, but has to stay in place because there is nowhere else they are allowed to go. Gaza, where there are no fellow citizens who can help because all citizens are equally affected. Gaza, where the government is more interested in destroying Israel than in helping the land under their control rebuild.

And yes, I know, there are more places that need to be rebuilt than Los Angeles and Gaza. There is Lebanon, Syria, northern Israel, and even Yemen. There is Ukraine and a small part of Russia. There are parts of Ethiopia and Sudan, and I am not sure Turkey, China and Japan have fully recovered from earthquake damage. And there are the mountains of western North Carolina.

But today, it is Gaza that’s on my mind…….

ADDENDUM:

I wrote all of that last night. Now, it is about 9 hours later, and already, the ground is shifting. The report this morning is that Israel is delaying the cabinet vote because Hamas is reneging on parts of the deal. Hamas says it is not reneging and is fully committed. We don’t yet know what this is about, whether it’s just typical bickering and face planting (is that a term, or did I just make it up?), or something material.

In the meantime, in Israel, there are some protests saying the deal is a surrender, not a victory, and one of the Israeli coalition parties has said it is against the deal unless it is limited to 60 days to do the swap, and that fighting can start again then.

I saw on the CNN online report that a number of governments have issued statements praising the deal, and expressing their support for the rights of the Palestinian people to have their own state, with some proclamations throwing in what, to me, is a new word to describe a Palestinian state: contiguous.

So here we are. Hamas says the fight will continue in due time. Some Israelis say the same thing, and say the due time is: now. Each side wants to control land from the river to the sea. Part of the international community wants publicly a contigous Palestinian state. Biden leaves office in 5 days. Trump says “all hell will break loose”, and just last night, after the ceasefire was announced, but before its Sunday start date, an Israeli strike killed another 45 people.

Happy Thursday.