I am asked that question quite a bit. Most recently, it was yesterday, when I was having lunch with a good friend. He had told me that he wasn’t sure which way things were tending, and wondered what I thought. I just sat there, maybe I smiled (at least maybe I smiled to myself), and said nothing. And then, finally, I said: “I have nothing to say.” I really have no idea.

The question from the beginning has been whether Israel’s very tough response to the October 2023 attack by Hamas has been necessary. Has it been necessary for 45,000 or so individuals in Gaza to die as a result of Israeli assaults? That is perhaps the biggest question, as it is in every war, including those instituted and waged by the United States. And there are so many people who can answer that question and be sure that their answer is correct. I am not one of them, on either score.

Israel has, by and large, been willing to live with the status quo for the past 50+ years, with the hope that sometime, some way, things would get better. The Israelis knew that they had to remain militarily strong to discourage any large scale attacks against its territories or people, and they knew that many of their neighbors thought that their country was an illegitimate outpost of foreigners, supported by American and European money. They knew that some of their neighbors not only wanted their country destroyed, but also thought that the Jewish Israelis should be forced to leave the area, or face a second Holocaust.

But they thought they were managing things. Even though Iran was talking big and sending a lot of money to several large proxies in the area, they counted on Iran not giving the go-ahead for all out war, knowing what that would mean to the Iranian homeland. Iran, they figured, was in the business of fomenting chronic irritation, but not complete destruction.

As to Hamas and its control of Gaza, Israel believed that, again in spite of major flare ups from time to time, Hamas was “under control”, through various secret relations and even unknown financial support.

On October 7, 2023, Israel was proven wrong. Yes, perhaps if Israel had not had some important security lapses, had they believed what they saw about a year of preparation for attack in Gaza, had they not taken troops away from the borders, had they better protected their new and quite expensive security fence and cameras, the attack might not have occurred. But they let these things go because they thought that Gaza would remain relatively quiet for the foreseeable future. Yes, they were wrong.

As Israel was responding to the situation in Gaza, the country was attacked from the North, by Hezbollah troops in Lebanon, also supported by Iran. The Gaza attack led to over 1,000 Israelis, mostly civilians, killed; the attacks from Lebanon led to the evacuation of a much larger number of Israelis from their homes. Israel responded by invading southern Lebanon, forcing the Hezbollah to retreat to the other side of the Litani River (I think that’s about 20 miles from the border). They then signed a treaty with Lebanon, keeping Hezbollah north of the river, giving the Lebanese Army some additional powers and responsibilities, and allowing Israel to respond to any treaty violations (as defined by Israel).

Israel has also been the recipient of drone and missile attacks from Yemen, from far away Yemen, and the IDF has now responded by retaliating against that country with some major air attacks and with President Netanyahu saying, in effect, “they aint’ seen nothin’ yet”.

Israel is clearly going all out. It is responding to what it considers a surprising, but nevertheless, an existential threat. It is now or never. There is no choice in the minds of most Israeli leadership – we kill them or they will kill us. Period.

When Gazan authorities give the death toll numbers, they say that they don’t distinguish between military and civilian. There is a reason for this. In effect, in their government’s eyes, every Gazan is a fighter for the end of “Israeli occupation”. They don’t distinguish between civilian and military because they don’t recognize the difference. That division is not something that they accept. Consequently, when fighting a land where its government proclaims everyone to be a freedom fighter, or whatever the proper term would be, Israel in response does not recognize these differences.

The article in yesterday’s New York Times titled “Israel Loosened Limits on Strikes, Multiplying Risks to Gaza Civilians” is a fascinating article (even if the headline writer does not seem to see the melding of military and civilian as I laid out above), demonstrating that the limits that Israel put on its military activities prior to October 2023 have been altered. Now, without approval from above, military officers individually can direct attacks which they know will kill civilians, and with central approval, the number of civilians who can be killed gets increased by a factor of at least five. Thus, 45,000 killed in Gaza, and the number grows. And, as I said above, the reason is clear: this is an existential war brought on by its neighbors.

Obvious, many think that Israel’s calculations in this respect are wrongheaded, and immoral. Maybe they are, but Israel (now under a determined, militaristic government) doesn’t really care. The fight is an existential fight. Niceties can come later.

There are those in the West who think that Israel should just give up and that is does not deserve to exist as an independent state and whose residents should just go somewhere else, period. There are those in the West who think that if Israel acted with more restraint, or acted nicer in general, everything would calm down. There are those who even think things would calm down if Israel ended its occupation and ended all limitations it has put on Gaza.

The Israel government disagrees. They believe that they have tried that in the past and that it won’t work. But they also believe that one day, the active fighting will end, and something will have to be done about its then-defeated neighbors. But it does not appear that they know exactly what will have to be done.

And of course, surprises occur. No one expected a successful revolt in Syria, cutting off Iranian supply routes. Time will tell if Israel can take advantage of that. No one knows if the Saudis will join Israel in fighting the Houtis. No one knows the future of the Abraham Accords.

Had the Palestinians recognized Israel in 1948 or any time subsequent to that, the wars wouldn’t occur again and again, and yes, maybe Israel could have ended the occupation and felt secure. But that’s not what the Palestinians wanted. The Palestinians (I speak of their leadership, of course) welcome the fighting, because they think that they so outnumber the Israelis, that they will definitely win. And when they win, many or most of them would like the Jews to vanish from their midst or become the second class citizens they were for so long in most Muslim nations.

So many Israelis respond: “You can’t kick us out; we will kick you out.” And the International Court of Justice now has to decide if Israel is committing genocide, a word that has many definitions. I don’t think anyone can say that Israel is perpetuating an Arab Holocaust. But there are those who would like to see all or most Arabs leave Gaza and the West Bank for greener pastures (or at least better sand), and that may actually happen, I think.

Listening to a podcast recently about some historical events, the presenter said: “When historians look at this, they have the benefit of hindsight. They know what will happen next and where this will lead. But when you are living through it, you have no idea what is going to happen.”

That’s why I remained silent. I am not personally involved. I am not a decision maker with regard to these events. I am given no inside information. And – I am not looking at it as a historian.

If the Israelis are successful in creating a situation that increases their security, their current leaders, now so often derided, will be viewed as very clever statesmen. If Israel is not successful and is faced with, or creates, some major catastrophe, they will be damned. Future historians will know what happened after the Middle Eastern wars of 2023-2025. We don’t.

I am silent.