This is part of the Rosh Hashanah liturgy (and the Leonard Cohen songbook), and it is true, of course. We know nothing about the future.

I was listening to a podcast the other day (just a part of it, although I would like to finish it). Anne Applebaum was interviewing Yuval Harari, the Hebrew University professor who seems to have invented himself as an expert on virtually everything and, although I am suspicious of people who are treated with such great respect, including Harari, I did think he had some useful things to say. The podcast was filmed about two weeks ago.

Don’t take what I say as literally what Harari said (after all, it has been about three days since I listened to it), but basically he said that we have been living through extraordinary times, we of the “west”. Things have by and large been peaceful, and things have by and large been prosperous. And to think that this will continue this way throughout the measurable future is probably pie in the sky (not his term).

There are some things that seem certain from a study of human history, and one of those is that things change, that good times do not last. And he thinks that one of the reasons that the current “good times” won’t last is that we think that they will probably go on forever.

He talks about time he recently spent in Toronto, which he describes (not his words) as perhaps the most successful city in the most successful country of recent times. What interested him (at least for the purpose of this interview) was not so much the success of Toronto per se, but the fact that everyone who lives there just takes Toronto’s success for granted. Like it was always this way and always will be. To him (and I think he said it; if not, he could have), this may be a recipe for future unrest and disaster. And Canada is at this time having its share of internal disputes, and concerns about its short term future direction, as I understand it.

In addition to talking about how change (and negative change) is inevitable, Harari talks about how it can come about. Sure, it can come about slowly, and you can be the toad in the pot with the water slowly coming to a boil, so slowly that at first you don’t notice it. But change can also come with remarkable abruptness. Can take you by surprise and totally upend your life.

This session was obviously before Hurricane Helene tore the idyllic community of Asheville to pieces, but after – say – so much of Ukraine, or Gaza were hit with unscheduled (and to an extent unmerciful) warfare. Or even when Springfield Ohio was so strongly affected by allegations that Haitians were eating their neighbors pets. Who expected that to happen? For Springfield schools to have to close, for death threats to come in from all quarters to many segments of society? And who expected, 30 or so days before our presidential election, for all the east and southern coast longshoremen to go on strike, threatening both supply chain shortages and more price increases? And, for that matter, who expected that strike to end two days after it began?

Yes, the Unetannah Tokef prayer of Rosh Hashana (“who shall live and who shall die?”) makes it appear that all of this is in God’s hands. I must admit to not understanding the entire prayer. Things are in God’s hands, but yet humans can repent and do good deeds and that will help, even if it doesn’t change things, etc., etc. I see the spiritual strength of the prayer (just like Leonard Cohen obviously did), but I don’t see it as anything more. Other than, perhaps, that as bad things happen to you, it can give you some perspective that you might otherwise not have and, with this additional perspective, allow you to accept what happens with more equanimity than would otherwise be the case. And that is something.

But it does ignore one important thing: change can also be the result of human action. If I kill you, you die. Presumably, nothing to do with a God.

They say it was Heraclitus (yes, I looked it up) who said that the only constant in life is change. And those of us who do not like change that much have to get used to the idea.

Which takes me back to Yuval Harari and the attitude he found in Toronto about taking current peace and prosperity for granted. And that, of course, takes me to how easy it is to think that, no matter how much mischief you may seek to bring about, the world around you really won’t change that much. And that brings me to Donald Trump and to today’s Republican Party, which believes that the circulation of lies and untruths for the benefit of exalting your own position is simply a game you can play, with the hope that you will be the winner, and that the negative effects on the greater world will be minimal.

If those with influence continue to believe that their actions do not have the ability to bring about not only change, but sudden change, and destroy what we have been so lucky to experience, Yuval Harari will be proven correct. And, although I don’t accept him as a source of knowledge on all subjects, on this one, he will be proven to be spot-on.