So, there are negotiations going on in Doha to try to resolve the Israel-Gaza dispute, end the hostilities and bring home the hostages. As someone might have said somewhere in the ’50s, “Rotsa ruck”. (Where did I get that from? Nowhere? Somewhere? Where?)
You have two sides fighting, neither of whom want to stop. One of the sides has not sent anyone to the ceasefire negotiations (“You guys, go on and negotiate. When you’re done, tell me what you want me to do, and I will let you know what I think.” Wink, wink.) The other has sent a group with no authority to speak for their government, or reach any agreement.
On the Hamas side, the Long War (I think it deserves capitalization at this point) continues, with leadership taking the position: “We will eventually win this fight. Period. Sure there will be more than 40,000 martyrs in the process, but……big deal. Allahu akbar.”
On the Israel side, it’s more like: “If I am honest, there are two things that are more important than ending this war. First, it is important to keep the current Knesset coalition together, and second, it is important that this coalition continue to work to keep the present Prime Minister in office and out of jail. In the meantime, things will be tough, but we can be tougher.”
To quote Mr. Vonnegut, “So it goes.”
And what should the United States do? We have no idea what the Trump position is. He is waiting for Biden (whom he now calls Harris) to fail and use this failure in his campaign against the Democrats. If Trump is elected, we have no idea what he will actually do.
We think we know the Harris position (which will be a continuation of the Biden position, but she will be pressured by certain elements (some anti-war, some pro-Arab, some antisemitic) of the Democratic Party whom she will have to keep satisfied, including a large number of Michigan voters, a state which she needs.
The result is that the American position will become a campaign issue, or maybe campaign ploy. Neither candidate’s campaign statements might reflect what the candidate would do if elected, but because of its potential campaign importance, you can be sure it will be an increasing issue between now and November. And it may become an issue strong enough to influence the results of our election, which is a frightening thought.
Now, to the north.
We have conflicting positions between the candidates on the Russia/Ukraine war. Harris wants to support Ukraine (and NATO); Trump wants to pull support to force an end of the war on whatever terms. We’ll see how in this plays out during the campaign.
Meanwhile, while the same-old, same-old of the Gaza war continues on and on, the news out of Ukraine is always fascinating.
The Ukrainian excursion into Russia’s Kursk province is really exciting. I think. I keep reading things about the Russians’ surprise at the invasion, about the Russian army’s weakness, about the need to move Russian troops to Kursk from other places, and even the possibility of the FSB revolting against Putin at some point. It all makes for very interesting reading. We will have to see what happens. It is doubtful that this will affect our election the same way that the Gaza War might.
What’s most interesting, however, is that the two campaigns really seem to be ignoring both of these important events for the time being, and concentrating on their dislike of their opponents on a personal basis. Maybe that is just as well.
Sometimes, I do think about the similarities between these two wars. In each case, a larger and older power (Russian and Arab) has invaded a smaller and newer nation (Israel and Ukraine), claiming that they are simply trying to take back historic lands. The smaller powers respond by saying: this is not your historic land, it’s ours; we have been here longer than you. Are these really just the same war in a different location?
Happy Friday.