I was half-listening to the morning call-in show on C-Span yesterday. The guest was a professor from Milwaukee (I didn’t get her name) and she was asked a question about populism. She said that in her opinion, populism was not an ideology, but more of an approach to politics. She said (and I am, I am sure, adding my own gloss in this definition) that a populist must convince a large number of people that they belong to a group which is central to the nation, and which is being ignored by the ruling elite, and therefore must fight against that ruling elite in order not only to look out for themselves, but to preserve the nation. In order to do this, a political leader must be charismatic, and must maintain a keen focus.

Okay, maybe this isn’t at all what she said. Maybe my gloss has changed what she said completely. But this is a definition that I like and that I think is helpful. And it does help explain the Trump phenomena. Of course, there is the added question about Trump himself, since by any rational thinking, Trump is not a member of the group that he is preaching to. But remember that Napoleon was born on Corsica and his family was Italian, Garibaldi was born in Nice, on the Riviera, in France, Stalin was Georgian, and Hitler of course was born in Austria. Being an outsider by birth or background does not seem to be a detriment to fashioning oneself as a populist leader.

I haven’t been watching the Republican convention religiously, although it has been on the TV in the background the past three evenings, and we have turned on/up the sound when things looked interesting. Last night, we watched more than we did on the first two nights. One thing is clear. The Republicans know how to put on a show. I remember thinking this in 2016 and in 2020, so why should it be different this year?

In fact, this year is more low-key, I think, and pretty tasteful. I have heard that the ratings have been low, that not many have been watching, and I am glad of that. But (with exceptions), the radical MAGA Republican party has been trying to sound mainstream, and I think has succeeded to a great extent.

On one night, most of their presenters were Black, or Latino, or female. This is smart. Last night, they had Gold Star family members, and the parents of a young man being held hostage in Gaza, and a recent Harvard graduate who has sued the university over what he claims is its failure to protect Jewish students from antisemitism. And they had Donald Trump’s 17 year old granddaughter Kai talking about her “grandpa” who calls her to see how school is going and gives her ice cream when her parents aren’t looking.

There were some overly partisan moments from the Don, Jr. world. His perpetual fiance Kimberly Guilfoyle gave her typical rant (scaring me to death, not by what she says, but by how she says it), and then Don, Jr. himself whose talking was filled with political nastiness. And there was Peter Navarro, fresh from prison, talking about the Biden Department of Injustice and the unfairness of his being convicted of a crime that he obviously committed.

Then came J.D. Vance. Vance has, as we know, said some absurd things during his short political career, and started out as a Never Trumper, so we know that he is not someone whose word can be trusted. This is clear (or should be) to everyone.

But none of this came out in his speech, of course. In fact, almost nothing came out. It was delivered in a slow cadence, and somewhat in a monotone. He talked about his background, he introduced his now sober mother, he spoke warmly of his gun-toting Memaw (if that is how you spell it, or maybe it was Moomaw, or Mawmaw, or Mowmow), and his cemetery plot in Eastern Tennessee. He talked about the wonderful Mr. Trump. But he really didn’t say anything controversial about his policies or plans. He didn’t mention his radical abortion position or any of the domestic social issues. He didn’t mention Ukraine – he has been very vocal about our pulling out from support for Ukraine. He just didn’t bring these subjects up.

Meanwhile, of course, Joe Biden got COVID, we saw him get on Air Force One in Las Vegas maskless, and we saw him get off Air Force One in Dover, DE maskless and looking somewhat less than half alive, as he seemed to struggle down the plane’s stairs, and across the runway to a waiting car. He even tried to muster up a smile, but could not. His symptoms may be “mild”, but they looked debilitating. Yes, for Biden it was a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad day.

We will see how this unfolds. I have long predicted that Biden will not be the nominee, but time is growing short. My daughter Michelle suggests that this is the best day for Biden to withdraw as a candidate – that it should be done at the same time that Trump is speaking. Or maybe right before the speech, to make Trump’s speech about the incompetent Biden totally irrelevant. That would be clever, no doubt about it. But probably won’t happen.

But it does look like Biden cannot hang on, and that if he does hang on, he and the Democrats will lose badly, and that means four years (and who knows, maybe more) of chaos before the Trump populist cult runs out of steam. And by that time, NATO maybe decimated, Ukraine may be dismembered, China and the US may be in truly economic warfare, Iran may have the bomb, climate change may (if it already isn’t) be irreversible, and who knows what else?

The Democratic candidate will probably be Harris, and she will have a big hole to climb out of. Perhaps, she will herself back off, and give the party a new chance, divorced from the current crippled administration. (This is not to argue that the Biden presidency was a bad presidency, but it is crippled for sure at the present.) And then? The Democrats will need a charismatic ticket filled with hope and energy, will need to come up with a new border policy (one that is not afraid to criticize the first 3 years of Biden’s administration) and will need to explain the successes of Biden and the dangers of Trump and the MAGA movement and especially the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025.

A tall order, to be sure, but achievable. Keep your eyes on this space (as Rachel M would say).