We know that the Hamas (grogger roll) October 7 attack would probably never have happened if Israeli officials had paid attention to the lower level Israeli intelligence figures who concluded, well before October 7, that Hamas (grogger roll) was preparing for an attack, and that Hamas (grogger roll) was being very clever in its preparations. And we know that the reaction of the right wing Israeli government (grogger roll) under the leadership of Benjamin Netanyahu (grogger roll) has been to avoid any admission of failure or error, and to double down on the response to Hamas (grogger roll) to the extent that, presumably, 30,000+ Palestinians have died, and hundreds of thousands are in dire need of food and water.

Today we are reading about an attack on a rock concert venue in a Moscow suburb, where at least 150 Russians have been killed and an equal number injured. We have learned that United States intelligence had, over the past several weeks, become aware that groups were planning an attack on a crowded event (or multiple events) in Russia, and had warned the Russian officials (grogger roll), who apparently completely ignored the warnings, and considered it (I suspect) American disinformation. Now that the attack has occurred, these Russian officials, starting with Vladimir Putin (grogger roll), are also doubling down on the response, not admitting any fault, and will most likely strike out in ways that will be unfortunate, to say the least.

Do we see a pattern here? If so, what is it? It isn’t, as one might suspect, that there were intelligence failures, because there haven’t been (at least, not complete intelligence failures). It’s that intelligence is only good if it is acted upon, and is of no value if it to be ignored. And just as death is inevitable for everyone, and taxes inevitable for all but the very wealthy and the tax cheats, terrorist attacks are also presumably something approaching inevitable against those who belittle intelligence, or who decide to play the odds when it is not convenient to do otherwise.

About 25 years ago, when Russia was engaged in a war within its internal Chechnya Republic, and Putin had just come into power, there were a series of explosions in apartment buildings in Moscow, killing several hundred people. The explosions were immediately blamed on the Chechens, and several were arrested, and the war against the potentially breakaway republic was immediately intensified. Later, speculation grew that the bombings were not orchestrated by Chechen rebels, but by the Russian FSB (successor to the KGB) itself as a way to galvanize increasing hate against Chechnya so that the war could be intensified (as it was).

The current concert hall tragedy has been claimed by a group known as ISIS K as their doings, but my guess is that somehow Putin (grogger roll) will find a way to blame it on Ukraine. In fact, I have just read that seven men have been arrested, and that they (I don’t think they have been publicly identified yet) were caught trying to escape from Russia over the Ukraine border (of course). Is it a coincidence that this event occurred just days after Putin (grogger roll) won an election for another six years in power, and when protests have been staged across the country following the more than suspicious death of Alexei Navalny, Putin’s (grogger roll) would be rival for power?

The United States has thankfully been spared any large terrorist attacks since the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Towers in 2001. Sure there have been lone wolf attacks on several synagogues and other religious institutions, and there have been lone wolf attacks on schools and gatherings in places like Las Vegas and suburban Chicago, but none of these attacks have been by sophisticated, organized groups, and certainly none have been perpetrated by foreign terrorists. And, while this could change today or tomorrow, I think we have to thank our overworked law enforcement groups at every level, from the federal CIA and FBI down to local law enforcement in the smallest of communities. And we can only hope that our intelligence establishment is adequately staffed and funded as time goes on, and that any evidence that surfaces of potential attacks is taken seriously by those political leaders in a position to do something to shut down the threat.

Many, maybe most, schools and religious institutions have increased their vigilance and security, and that is all to the good (even though the fact they are required to do this is anything but good). But it seems like large gatherings in general are tempting to would be terrorists. The festival in the Negev Desert, where over 300 in attendance were murdered in October; the concert yesterday in Russia where over 150 have been killed. It appears that security at these venues (often private profit making venues, as opposed to churches and schools) may not be strong enough, and that more is needed. Clearly security at the Negev festival was lax, and – although I don’t know – I assume the same was true in Moscow.

It raises another question – even though on a percentage basis the odds are very small, should people think twice about going to any venue where security is limited – a concert, a cinema, a sporting event, a festival, a political rally? No one wants another COVID-type lock down for sure, but no one wants to be caught by a terrorist attack either.

It is unfortunate that we are now living in a country and an era where our governing bodies concentrate on the ridiculous and fail to address the important problems of the day, even those problems which are the easier to solve and which lack partisan intransigence. I fear that things will get worse before they get better. And not only do I fear this, but apparently younger Americans fear it even more, if recently polls and studies can be believed.

We have elections coming up. If, miracle of miracles, the Democrats control both houses of Congress and the Presidency, we have a chance to turn things around. If control is split between the two parties, we will continue our paralytic state, subject to whatever winds are blowing our way. If the Republicans control all three, heaven help us.

(The preceding paragraph was not a partisan statement, but rather a simple result of using one’s common sense.)

Chag Purim sameach.