It’s hard to talk about Israel and Gaza without also talking about the war in Ukraine and the American southern border, isn’t it? Because of America’s contorted political situation, they are all mixed up with each other. But let’s focus on them one at a time: today – Israel and Gaza.

Most people I know are generally very supportive of Israel whenever it faces a challenge from its neighbors. And the October 7 attack was certainly a challenge, and Israel’s security is paramount. But there is something about this challenge that we have not been talking about. Perhaps we have already forgotten.

I am talking about Israel’s momentous security failure. To refresh our memories, we now know that Hamas, committed from its earliest days to destroy Israel, had been planning the October attack for a number of years in a thorough and comprehensive manner. We have also learned that Israeli intelligence had picked up on Hamas’ plans over a year before the attack.

But, for reasons totally unclear, the intelligence about Hamas’ preparations were ignored, or minimized, and not acted upon as they were sent up the intelligence hierarchy. At some point, we will probably know why this occurred, but at this point, what we cannot forget is that: had these intelligence findings, which had been put into a written report, been taken seriously and investigated further, the attack might have never taken place.

We also have heard about the billion dollar border defense system that had been recently installed by Israel along the entire Gaza border. But this defense system was not autonomous – it required the presence of Israeli personnel to follow up on any perceived potential attacks. I don’t know the details, but I have heard that the Israeli personnel who should have been watching the border on October 7 were not there. They had been pulled off to protect the right wing settlers in the West Bank, who were having trouble with local Palestinians. Or rather who were making trouble with local Palestinians. The West Bank issues raise totally different, but very important, questions, that we should hold for another day. What is important to know here is that, had these personnel not been pulled away from the Gaza border, the October 7 attack either would not have occurred or would most likely would have been successfully blunted.

Finally, we know that there was a large music festival being held not too far from the Gaza line in very open country, and that hundreds of young Israelis would be in attendance, with very limited security. Why the festival security was so lax is another question that must be asked.

We don’t know why Hamas picked October 7 as the day to attack. We can speculate, but we really don’t know. Was it a coincidence that the attack occurred when the Israeli defenses were down? Did Hamas know that they would have an open road on October 7? Was it because it was the 50th anniversary of the 1973 War (and if this was the case, shouldn’t Israel have been more alert, rather than less alert)? By the way, it must also be remembered that an intelligence failure was involved in that war, too. (If you have seen the recent film, Golda, you know what I am referring to.)

In any event, while we know that the attack was not the fault of Israel, the Israeli errors were certainly responsible for the extent and success of the rampage. Yet, so far, Netanyahu, Ben Gvir and Smotrich et al have been successful in deflecting any blame, at least for now, postponing any investigation until after the fighting has stopped.

Instead, Netanyahu said that Israel was going to completely wipe out Hamas – we don’t know what this means, but we believe this is not really possible. Hamas members cannot be easily identified (the same being true of supporters of Islamic Jihad and other groups in Gaza), and Hamas leadership is in Qatar. In addition, as long as over 100 hostages are being held by Hamas, any action by Israel is fraught. But by attacking Gaza, Israeli action has killed about 30,000 residents of Gaza and led to the death of a few hundred Israeli soldiers. And a conflict that has apparently displaced 80% of Gazans, and shut down its health system and its food distribution system.

The majority of the Gaza population has migrated to the south of the Strip, at the instructions of the Israelis, and now are massed in that area where Netanyahu says he is about to order a major attack. The world (including many in Israel, and many, many in the United States) is lining up strongly against this proposed attack and, to the extent that American financial support is needed by Israel, the world is lining up strongly against that financial support without very strong conditions on its use. As to American politics, in addition to those “Israel right or wrong” supporters, those who are in favor of providing funds to Israel without strings are largely Republicans who support Trump. Democratic supporters – especially minorities such as Muslims and Blacks, and young voters – are by and large criticizing Biden, who himself has been strongly in favor of funding Israel, even as he expresses disapproval over some of Netanayu’s remarks.

Added to the border, Ukraine, inflation, his age and perceived frailty and more, this is one more problem for Biden, whose major political asset at this point is the identity of his likely opponent.

What do I think at this time? I think that strings should be placed on further military support for Israel for the present. I think it is time for the United States to withhold funds that would support an unlimited Israeli incursion into South Gaza. We should concentrate on freeing the hostages (with the help of those Arab nations willing to help, of course), on supporting the goal of establishing a new moderate government in Gaza, on participating in the Gazan rebuilding process, on working towards the reopening of the hospitals and the creation of a consistent food delivery system, and showing Gazans that they are being treated as human beings. And, although it won’t be easy, we should be leaders in trying to reconcile the Gaza population with the existence of Israel, rather than promoting the more venomous relationship that this war has obviously brought about, particularly with respect to younger Arabs.

Going back to the beginning, we must remember that the October 7 attack wound up as tragic as it has in part because of Israeli intelligence failures, and over Israeli government support for extremist West Bank settlers. If Israel, under responsible leadership, strengthens its intelligence and defense systems to where all of us thought they were before this attack, attacks like this will remain very unlikely.

On the other hand, if Israel keeps up the pressure of this war, Hamas will not be neutralized, the population of Gaza will be further radicalized, thousands more will die (and recall, those dying are mainly women and children), and the moderate Arab states, one by one will lose interest, the influence of the United States will be diminished, and even the US will find it difficult to support Israel as fully as it now does.

Blanket support for further death and devastation in Gaza will do no good for anyone.