I remember when I asked my granddaughter some time ago: ”So, Joan, what state do you think Des Moines, Iowa is in?” And she thought a minute or so, looked querulous at me, raised her head and said “Maybe Ohio?”

Yes, most people don’t spend much time thinking about Iowa. But then, Brigadoon-like, every four years Iowa appears out of nowhere. That’s because it’s time for the Iowa caucuses. 

Now, the Iowa caucuses (which take the place of a primary election) is Iowa’s way of determining who the major parties will run for president of the United States (and other federal offices). Traditionally, it is the first event of the primary season, and the candidates spend untold hours trying to woo the state’s voters. Ron DeSantis, for example, realizing that there is no reason for him to be in Florida (the state he is supposedly leading as governor) and there is no need for him to be present in the lives of his quite young children, brags that he has been campaigning in all 99 Iowa counties, and apparently he has spent abut $15 million along the way. 

But let it be known that I have only been in 3 Iowa counties in my entire life, and that I have spent probably no more than a total of $100 or $200 in the state (and that some time ago), and my guess is that he won’t get that many more votes from Iowa Republicans than I will. (He is now polling at about 13%)

But what is important is that, IMHO, the Iowa caucuses are totally meaningless. Look at the following would be political leaders: Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, Ted Cruz, Dick Gephardt, Tom Harkin, Pete Buttegieg. They were all caucus winners. But this is the start of the presidential campaign and the winner will certainly get some notoriety and gain some momentum.

The Republican caucus will take place on Monday. Monday is Martin Luther King Day, and you can argue the propriety of having the caucus on that day both ways. It’s an insult to Rev King and a diversion from the reason for the holiday. Or it’s a good time to have the caucuses, because so many people are not required to go to work that day. It also might be relevant that, particularly for Iowa Republicans, there are few for whom the holiday might have any special meaning. For the Republicans, about 90% of caucus goers traditionally are White, and the majority of the non-Whites are Latino, and not Black. Only about 4% of the State is African-American, and they vote almost exclusively Democratic.

The Democrats this year, by the way, are not having the traditional caucus. In order to increase participation, they are having a mail-in primary, and the voting will not take place until February.

In order to participate at a caucus, you must be a registered party member, and you must show up. There is a caucus in each precinct in the State, and that means that there are almost 1700 separate caucuses being held the same day. Each of these caucuses, which will include local party meanings and campaign speeches by candidates or supporters, may be short or may be long. The culmination will be a secret ballot to determine the winner.

This year, there is a special wrinkle. It is going to be cold. Now you say, well it’s Iowa in the winter. Isn’t it always cold? And the answer is “yes”, but not like this. I checked the forecast for Des Moines, Dubuque, Cedar Rapids and a few other spots. No place in Iowa is predicted to rise above 0 degrees Fahrenheit on Monday. The high throughout the state will be from -5 to -3 degrees. The lows will be in the range of -11 to -14 degrees Fahrenheit. And, in most places there will be snow on the ground. What will this do to turnout, especially – I guess – among older voters, who often make up the bulk of the caucuses. We will have to see.

The latest polling shows Trump at about 55%, Haley at about 20%, DeSantis at 13%, and the rest divided among others. I think the polling is all done with participants who are “likely caucus goers”, but I guess I am not really sure that all are done that way.

Iowa is a red, red state these days. Trump won it, 53-45 in 2020, a margin of 8%, when he lost the overall race. And in 2016, he had a 9 point lead over Hillary Clinton. But Clinton and Obama each carried the State twice, and Gore carried it once. Why now does it appear so red? I am not sure, except that a lot of people have moved out of Iowa over the last decade and I would bet that the overwhelming percentage of those who left were Democratic, not Republican voters. Just a guess.

We will see what happens on Monday. We will see how Ron DeSantis, who has given so much energy and money to his campaign, will finally do. You all know “The Music Man”, set in Iowa. You know what they say there: you gotta know the territory. We will see if that’s true.