Assuming it doesn’t spread, what will happen when the war in Gaza is over? We aren’t very good at figuring out that sort of question, are we? Even when we win a war with relative ease, we find that winning the peace can escape us. Look at Iraq as an example.

Those who are thinking about post-war Gaza talk about the Palestinian Authority, or the United Nations, or an Israeli occupation, or some form of Gaza Palestinian self-rule yet to be determined. Then, they say “but none of these will work”. And they may be right.

After all, the United States – “the world’s oldest democracy” have a hard time governing ourselves and, with Trump rerunning, and the growing right wing groups in Congress, we may have to give up the idea of the constitutional democracy we have been struggling with. And certainly Israel, with a diminished center and a more diminished left, with a coalition which includes ministers who want to annex the West Bank and nuke Gaza, is not today a successful example of a functioning democracy.

In 2010 and 2011, we witnessed Arab Springs – when the possibility of popularly elected governments seemed to stand a chance to reconfigure the Arab world. Of course, the chance turned out not even to be a ghost of a chance, and led to, if anything, less representative governments.

It led to thinking whether any Muslim country can be governed by a representative, elected democracy. The only Muslim democracy is/was Turkey, and that’s because it had its growth as a secular Muslim country with a definitive line between religion and state. As it is now controlled by a religiously oriented Muslim government, its government has become more and more repressive, although in form it has not changed, and could reverse itself.

But clearly there is no true Arab democracy. Every country on the Arabian peninsula is tightly controlled by a religious, tribal or monarchical leader. Iraq is a “democracy”, but a pawn of Iran. Egypt controlled by the military, Jordan and Morocco by a king, Syria by a dictator, Libya by no one. Tunisia comes closest, having adopted a form of democracy after the deposing of its most recent dictator. But it is a shaky democracy.

And none of those countries have the problems that Gaza has. The devastation, the lack of a viable economy, the stated necessity of Israeli border control for Israel’s security (now viewed more important than ever), the crowding of its population, the lack of sufficient resources to come close to self-sufficiency. It’s not even clear if Gaza should stand by itself or if it should be combined with the West Bank.

Let’s assume that, when the war ends, there is no Hamas. That is Israel’s stated goal. But a substitute Hamas, one that believes Israel should not exist, one that believes peace is impossible, one that believes in Palestinians from the river to the sea, would be no better. But is it possible to take the Gazan population, young as it is, educated on the evils of Israel and the illegitimacy of the Zionist state, and put it under the control of people who do not believe that and who hold the respect of the population?

I saw a recent poll of Gazan and West Bank residents. Over 3/4 at this point support the actions of Hamas. Before the war, Hamas support (at least in Gaza) was less. But the overwhelming Israel response to the Hamas atrocities (which Gazans may or may not believe were unjustified) has certainly convinced more Palestinians of the inhumanity of the Israelis.

So any popularly elected government for Gaza (or the West Bank, presumably) would lead to a highly anti-Israeli government. Any government overseen by Israel would be anathema (for good reason) to the Gazans. Any government overseen by an international organization would be anathema to Israel.

Perhaps the only possible course of action would be to have the Abraham Accord governments, along with Jordan and Egypt (as countries with relations with Israel) and Saudi Arabia if it wishes to play a part, propose and oversee a government with sufficient safeguards for the borders of Israel. Such a government would have to be blessed by Israel, but Israel would have to have no day to day responsibilities with regard to it. Along with the establishment of the government, there would have to be massive assistance in rebuilding (an al-Marshall plan, I would suggest), and a complete rewrite of the education programs in Israel, Gaza and the West Bank to build up the legitimacy of and the possibility of collaboration with the other.

If this won’t work, what will? And I don’t know if this would have a chance of working.