For some time, as you may know, I have been hoping that Biden bows out of the 2024 presidential race in favor of a younger candidate. I still have that hope, and perhaps the recent showing of his general current unpopularity will push him in that direction. According to this morning’s New York Times, a recent NYT/Siena College poll shows him trailing Donald Trump among likely voters in 5 of the 6 battleground states.

Many of us find this hard to believe since Donald Trump is Donald Trump and nobody in their right mind could possibly vote for him, but there you have it. They say they will.

There are those who say that the election is a year away and that presidents in general at this time during their terms are unpopular. They cite Barack Obama, who apparently had similar popularity ratings to Biden’s at this point in his first term. But it’s hard to rely on that, especially since certain groups necessary for a Democratic win (at least in the battleground states) are falling short – Blacks, Hispanics, young voters and so forth.

When asked why they are not going to vote for Biden, many cite his age and supposed mental decline. I don’t sense a mental decline, but you can’t deny his age. As I have often said, he is a week older than I am, and there is no way that I think I would be able to function as president for the next 5 years.

They also cite the economy, which is a mystery, to be sure, considering the numbers, which – as they say – do not lie. But many people say that they are in worse shape now than when Biden came into office. This, I assume, is the result of inflation, which influences their thinking more than the job and wage growth, the low unemployment, the rise in manufacturing and the other things we have been seeing. And, the fact that inflation is now down to a 3.5% or so level doesn’t change the perception. After all, the price base is now higher (and won’t be declining materially), and there are still surges in specific sectors, like some grocery products. Put this together with the always visible gas prices and with the high interest rates that the Fed has created in its fight against inflation, as well as the continual Republican talking points, and you can see how some people can be fooled all of the time.

I have also often said that the one thing that Trump has said that I tend to agree with is that the “American people are stupid”. This is not, however, to be taken as an assertion that Americans are more stupid than other peoples. No, not at all. They just are not any smarter.

There are many reasons Trump should never again be president. First, his record as president over his four year term. Second, his being indicted on 91 felony accounts, and the legal attacks on his businesses. But the Republicans will nominate him, and even though he is 78, he does give the impression of being able to go on for a long time.

That brings me to the late Madeleine Albright, someone who always impressed me in her various high level public positions (UN Representative, Secretary of State). I just finished reading her lasts book Fascism: a Warning, published in 2018, two years into the Trump presidency. I’d give this book at A, and suggest you look at it. It is not a difficult read.

Albright acknowledges that the word “fascism” is not always defined in the same way. She defines it basically as being a system of government led by a strong man, who brooks no opposition, is willing to use violence when he feels appropriate, who has disregard for existing governmental institutions, and who relies on nationalist feelings and demeaning of outsiders. And, to be a successful strong man, you need one other characteristic. You need charisma, or at least sufficient charisma to attract wide spread support.

While Albright has chapters devoted to 20th century fascists, such as Mussolini, Hitler and Franco, she also has chapters dealing with those who have come to power in the 21st century. She talks of Putin, and Erdogan, and Orban, and Kaczynski. She talks of Chavez and Madura. She even identifies the three generation leadership of North Korea (Communist though it is) as fascist. (For some reason, she does not discuss China at all, nor any Arab or Iranian leaders in the Middle East – only so much space, I guess).

And, yes, she talk about Donald Trump.

None of these fascist or semi-fascist leaders are clones of each other, but clearly and publicly none of them are sui generis, and all show where they have been influenced by others of the same strain. Even Trump, of course, seems to glorify strong fascistic leaders, whether it be Putin or the Kims or Erdogan or Orban.

Showing how Trump fits into her definition of a fascist (or as he was called by New School Professor Finchelstein in the recent JBS panel show, a fascist-wannabe), she shows how the American public can be attracted to him, to his confidence, to his supposed nationalism, to his strong man persona, just as Germans were attracted to Hitler, Italians to Mussolini, Turks to Erdogan and Hungarians to Orban. And how, in each case, even if the first years seem encouraging to their supporters, things inevitably turn out bad.

Will the United States re-elect a fascist-wannabe over an serious minded, but perceived mentally declining, 82 year old? I would like to think we would never have the chance to find out.