First, the interesting fact of the day:

I used to know only two things about Joseph Seligman. Now I know three.

Thing one: Joseph Seligman was a very successful and well respected Jewish investment broker in 19th century New York.

Thing two: Joseph Seligman in 1877 was not allowed into the Grand Union Hotel in Saratoga Springs NY because of his religion, apparently the first example of antisemitism of this nature in this level of American society.

Thing three (NEW): Joseph Seligman had five sons, and hired a live-in tutor to teach his sons for a number of years. The tutor’s name? Horatio Alger, Jr.

Who knew?

Next, new joke of the day:

“My wife told me, when I went to the grocery store, to buy six cans of Sprite, but I picked seven up.”

Now, on to business:

Did anyone else see the Jonathan Capehart show on MSNBC this morning? He just had a great panel (sorry, I didn’t get the names of his guests) about predictions for the 2024 presidential election. Two of the panelists were Democrats, and one a Lincoln Project Republican (or ex-Republican, I am not sure).

The focus was on the continuing low approval ratings for President Biden (a very recent poll put approval at 41%) and continuing concerns about his age and health (over 50%).

The panelists had a number of responses (I list them as I remember them, no ranking or order intended):

1. Can you name one 2020 Biden supporter who now says “I am going to vote for Trump?”
2. Based on polling, there was no chance that Trump was going to win in 2020 – the anti-Trump sentiment was too strong.
3. The number of people with a favorable opinion of Trump is even lower than the number with a favorable opinion of Biden.
4. The Trump supporters tend to be older – many have died since 2020. If you look at the younger population and first time voters, they poll overwhelmingly Democratic.
5. Only 30% of younger voters went to the polls in 2020 – this is a challenge, but if this number can be increased……
6. The only way to look at polls is to compare them to what happened in previous elections…..but this election is like no other election, and such comparisons may be misleading.
7. The one-off local elections that have been held over the past couple of years have gone very strongly Democratic.
8. The abortion issue is going to be stronger than anyone now thinks, as the Republicans double down.
9. Two thirds of people polled oppose a government shut down.
10. Over 60% of Americans are very concerned about Trump’s legal problems.

Admittedly, this was a “biased” panel, but it was also a quite optimistic panel. I still wish the Democrats had an alternative candidate. But these three have tamped down my pessimism. I hope they are right.

Gmar tov (cough, cough)