Yesterday, I heard a representative of the Federal Reserve Board talk about inflation. Yes, he said, inflation is down, but it isn’t down to where it should be, so we are going to keep fighting it. It may be down below 5%, rather than 9% or whatever it was a year ago, but that isn’t sufficient. We want it down to 2%.

Well, sure. Of course we do. But is this even possible, given the world today?

Fifteen years ago, when my blood pressure started creeping up, my cardiologist told me that his goal was to bring the top number down below 120. Without medicine, my pressure was more like 150 – 160. With the medicine my general practitioner had prescribed, it varied, moving in the 130s and 140s, depending on situations impossible to fully understand (time of day, when I had last eaten, exercise, who knows what). But the cardiologist told me I should bring it below 120, and he could help me do it.

First, I was to lose weight (although by no standard was I overweight). Second, I was to read books on meditation and practice, practice, practice. Third, I was to take more or different kinds of blood pressure medication, and we were to explore these possibilities until I was consistently below 120.

The fact that this medication made me dizzy, tired, spacey, or generally unwell was unimportant. Unfortunate, yes. But unimportant. We were on a mission.

Eventually, I gave up. I put my blood pressure back in the hands of my general practitioner, and was satisfied with keeping it in the 130-140 range. I avoided worrying about my blood pressure (which was labile for sure) by not checking it at home. And for the last 15 years, all seems to have been OK.

There is no question, said my general practitioner, that following the cardiologists exploratory suggestions would have lowered my pressure further. Whether it ever would have gone under 120, we don’t know. Perhaps. Perhaps not. But as my doctor told me, trying to bring it lower will bring you some discomfort no doubt. He told me it was my choice, but clearly he and the cardiologist were of two different minds.

This is what I think of when I think of inflation. Throughout the post-COVID period, inflation has plagued the world. Pent up demand. Supply chain distortions. War in Ukraine. Increasing climate change. All have played (and continue to play) a part. Throughout this period, and particularly now, inflation in the United States has been below virtually all other industrialized countries (and has been halved from its high of a year or two ago). If most other industrialized countries are now showing inflation rates of 6% to 8%, and we are now below 5%, it seems to me we are doing pretty well.

Could we do better? Yes, of course. We could do better by further increasing interest rates. The Fed has already increased interest rates by about 5%, making it harder to buy or sell a house, get or pay back a loan, and so forth. They could (and might) raise the borrowing rates even more, making things more tough.

Even with all the pressure from the Fed, the U.S. economy is doing very well. High employment, low unemployment, consumer confidence and so on. But further tampering with the interest rates could certainly change that picture, both quickly and drastically. It is just like with my blood pressure – we can get it to 120 or below, but you will be very uncomfortable while we do so.

Further, if we remain part of a world economy (which we will), and if we remain dependent on commodity and transport prices in other countries which are not as successful in fighting inflation, it is possible that, notwithstanding how strongly the Fed fights inflation, it won’t succeed. Then where are we?

In addition, because we are who we are, you cannot ignore the politics. The Republicans want to be able to slam the Biden administration by not doing enough to soften the inflation. If inflation goes down and unemployment goes up, they will slam the Biden administration for doing a poor job on the economy. While there is nothing to say that the Republicans would do anything better or different (the Republicans don’t like to say what they will do on most subjects), this certainly resonates with Americans who are not now realizing the American dream. All this is a fact of life.

But if the Fed, an independent agency, clamps down on inflation to the extent that it weakens the general economy in all other ways, they will be playing into the hands of the GOP. Certainly, they must realize this. But do they take this into account? I don’t know.

We are a strange nation in so many ways. Our elected (sort of) president is slowed down by our Congress. Our elected Congress is paralyzed in so many ways by partisan differences. But two branches of our government are unaffected by this, and are able to march along to their own tunes. They are the unelected Supreme Court and the unelected Federal Reserve. They, I think, are the real powers behind the legislative and executive branches. Is this the way to run a country?