I don’t look at every poll that’s taken, and I understand that a grain of salt must be added to each recipe. But the fact is that polls generally turn out to be pretty accurate.

For this reason, you can’t discount the new ABC poll that shows President Biden’s approval at 38%, or the other reason polls that according to the 538 website, shows Biden’s overall approval around 42%. You also can’t discount the same ABC poll that shows that Trump would beat Biden (at least by popular vote) in an election held today. And, finally, you have to respect the poll that says (in spite of what you might consider considerable evidence to the contrary) that Americans feel that Trump was much better for the economy than Biden.

You also can’t overlook the fact the Joe Biden is now 80 years old and, at the end of a second term, would be 86. Yes, the average 80 year old male may live another 7 years or so, but the average 80 year old does not work under the stress of the presidency or have the time demands put upon a president, and the average 80 year old does not live those additional seven years in perfect health.

There are other things you must keep in mind as well. For one thing, Kamala Harris is set to be on the Democratic ticket to serve an additional four years as Vice President, and (given the health and life expectancy statistics alluded to above) may wind up President at some time before the end of 2028. It is possible that she would be a terrific president, of course, but the fact is that almost no one thinks so. Apparently, with the end of COVID restrictions, there will be even more people crossing our southern border, and the Democrats have not shown a way to control border crossings in a way to give any assurance to the voting public. Finally, you need to take into account Hunter Biden and the additional stress his situation will probably lay upon President Biden over the next several years, as well as the grist for the Republican political mill that his situation will provide.

My conclusion is that the most important Democratic priority at this time should be to convince Biden that in fact he should not run for reelection, and to come up with a viable alternative in the near future. A viable alternative is not only someone who will support good policies (that is almost any Democrat), but one whose personality would allow these policies to be sold to the American public. There are many who could fit that bill – the Hessel household likes Cory Booker.

Of course, the Republicans have their own problem, as it looks more and more like Donald Trump again being their nominee. Yes, we know that some old-line Republicans want someone new, but the majority of Republicans don’t see it that way. They want Donald and by getting Donald, they may lose some of their usual voters. This is a different situation from that of the Democrats, the majority of whom would rather see someone new get the nomination, not Joe Biden.

Sensible people, it seems to me, should not want either Biden or Trump as the nominee. Trump, for obvious reasons, and Biden for the reasons stated above. You may agree with me that the majority of Democratic voters vote sensibly, and that the Trump portion of the GOP does not. Nevertheless, no one has ever accused the overall American population of being sensible. Or smart.

In the meantime, although Biden has done a good job over his first two years, the Republican House of Representatives can thwart much of what would otherwise be further progress. And the Republican voices seem to have the ability to turn Democratic victories into Democratic losses, contributing the overall feeling that the Democrats are bad for America. The next big test will be the debt ceiling increase. The position of the GOP (that we need to agree to future budgetary cuts as a condition to agreeing to pay bills we already owe) may be nonsensical (as well as dangerous), but for the not very sensible Republicans, it does sound good. And my guess is that, if the credit of the United States collapses, it will be viewed by most as a Democratic problem. And that it will end with a compromise viewed as a Republican victory. The blame will fall on Biden, the figures will show an economy in deep trouble, and the Republicans will be unscathed. Just you wait and see.

Ruth Bader Ginsburg didn’t retire and her death led to a Conservative super majority on the Court, a serious problem. Diane Feinstein is not retiring and we don’t yet know where that will lead, perhaps to a serious problem. Joe Biden is not retiring, and he is probably going to stick to his guns. This could be the most serious problem of them all.